The Green Papers
Democratic Delegate Allocation - 2008

TheGreenPapers.com will be tracking delegate counts as both "Soft" (here assuming that relevant delegations will remain sanctioned into the respective National Conventions [that is: with no delegates to be seated at the Democratic National Convention]) and as "Alternative" (here assuming that the full delegation of an affected jurisdiction- as originally allocated before being sanctioned- is eventually to be seated [that is, at some point before the Conventions, sanctions will be lifted]) from now until the Democratic National Convention convenes or until no delegation is any longer sanctioned, if this should occur prior to the Conventions.

On 5 October 2007, the DNC determined that the date of Florida's 29 January 2008 primary violates party rules and has decided to strip the state of its entire delegation.

On 1 December 2007, the DNC determined that the date of Michigans's 15 January 2008 primary violates party rules and has decided to strip the state of its entire delegation.

On Saturday 31 May 2008, the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee decided to seat the entire Florida and Michigan delegations. However, each delegate (pledged and unpledged) will cast only ½ delegate vote.

Primary Calendar

Delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions will begin on the first Tuesday in February (5 February 2008) and end on the second Tuesday in June (10 June 2008). States are required to complete their process by the third Saturday in June (21 June 2008). However,

• Iowa can schedule its first tier caucuses 22 days before the window (Monday 14 January 2008),
• Nevada can schedule its first tier caucuses 17 days before the window (Saturday 19 January 2008),
• New Hampshire can hold its primary 14 days before the window (Tuesday 22 January 2008), and
• South Carolina can hold its primary 7 days before the window (Tuesday 29 January 2008).

Delegate Allocation Overview

The pledged delegate "base" allocation is determined by the jurisdiction's Presidential vote in 1996, 2000, and 2004 and the jurisdiction's electoral vote allocation. Jurisdictions beginning their process later in the cycle receive bonus delegates.

The unpledged PLEO Democratic Delegates consist of Democratic Governors, House members, Senators; DNC members; distinguished party leaders (former Democratic Presidents, Governors, Representatives, and Senators); and Add-on delegates (as voted by the DNC). Elections, appointments, and deaths from now until the 2008 convention will change these numbers.

Click here to skip to the current allocation.

Computation of (intermediate) Base Votes
for Jurisdictions with Electoral Votes

The rules of the Democratic National Convention call for the following formula to be used in determining the allocation of delegate votes to each jurisdiction sending a delegation to the Convention.

Each jurisdiction with electoral votes is assigned a number of Base (delegate) votes based on an "Allocation Factor" multiplied by 3,000 arrived at through a calculation involving the following factors:

1. State's Democratic Vote (SDV): The jurisdiction's popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the last three Presidential Elections (1996, 2000, and 2004).
2. Total Democratic Vote (TDV): The total popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the last three Presidential Elections (1996, 2000, and 2004).
3. The state's Electoral Vote (SEV).
4. The total Electoral Vote of all jurisdictions (538).

The formula for determining a jurisdiction's Allocation Factor is:

Allocation Factor = ½ × ( ( SDV ÷ TDV ) + ( SEV ÷ 538 ) )

The number of Base votes assigned to a state is Allocation Factor × 3000 (Fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer).

To summarize, half of a jurisdiction's base vote is determined by the number of Presidential Electors assigned to that state and half are computed by the number of people who voted for the Democratic candidate in the last three elections.

Assignments of (intermediate) Base Votes
for Jurisdictions without Electoral Votes

Jurisdictions without Electoral votes receive the following:

• Puerto Rico is assigned 44 Base Votes.
• American Samoa, Guam, and the Virgin Islands are each assigned 3 Base Votes.
• Democrats Abroad are assigned 6 Base Votes.

Computation of Bonus Base Votes

The number of Bonus Base votes for 5%, 10%, 15%, and 30% awards is the number of Base votes × 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.30 respectively (fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer).

Bonus Allocation

Bonus delegates are awarded to states holding their First Determining Step (start their delegate allocation process) later in the cycle. The bonus is awarded as a percentage of the base allocation of pledged delegates and applies to the district and at-large delegates. The bonus does NOT apply to the Pledged PLEO and Unpledged delegates.

The Presidential nomination cycle is divided into 3 Stages: Stage I for January, February, or March; Stage II for April; and Stage III for May or June.

If a state began their 2004 process in January, February, or March and begins their 2008 process in

• April: 15% bonus (Base × 0.15) [Stage I to Stage II]
• May or June: 30% bonus (Base × 0.3) [Stage I to Stage III]

If a state began their 2004 process in April and begins their 2008 process in

• April: 5% bonus (Base × 0.05) [Stage II]
• May or June: 30% bonus (Base × 0.3) [Stage II to Stage III]

If a state began their 2004 process in May or June and begins their 2008 process in

• May or June: 10% bonus (Base × 0.1) [Stage III]

Bonus votes are allocated to jurisdictions as district and at-large delegates.

• Bonus At-Large Delegate Votes = [5%, 10%, 15%, 30%] Bonus Base × 0.25. (Fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer. Should the rounding result in 0 Bonus Delegate Votes, the round the Bonus up to 1.)
• Bonus District Delegate Votes = [5%, 10%, 15%, 30%] Bonus Base - Bonus At-Large Delegate Votes. (The number of Bonus District delegates plus the number of Bonus At-Large delegates must equal the Bonus Base. Hence, the rounding favors the statewide At-Large allocation.)
• There is one exception to the above rule: South Dakota's bonus delegate is awarded as a District rather than an At-Large delegate.

Rule 20.C.1. - Sanctions

If a jurisdiction begins their delegate selection process before the "window", that jurisdiction's pledged delegate allocation is reduced by 50% and their unpledged delegates are not allowed to vote at the National Convention.

If a candidate campaigns in violation of the "window" that candidate may receive neither pledged delegates nor delegate votes from the state where the violation occurred.

Text of Rule 20.C.1.

• a. Violation of timing: In the event the Delegate Selection Plan of a state party provides or permits a meeting, caucus, convention or primary which constitutes the first determining stage in the presidential nominating process to be held prior to or after the dates for the state as provided in Rule 11 of these rules, or in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent. In addition, none of the members of the Democratic National Committee and no other unpledged delegate allocated pursuant to Rule 8.A. from that state shall be permitted to vote as members of the state's delegation. In determining the actual number of delegates or alternates by which the state's delegation is to be reduced, any fraction below .5 shall be rounded down to the nearest whole number, and any fraction of .5 or greater shall be rounded up to the next nearest whole number.
• b. A presidential candidate who campaigns in a state where the state party is in violation of the timing provisions of these rules, or where a primary or caucus is set by a state's government on a date that violates the timing provisions of these rules, may not receive pledged delegates or delegate votes from that state. Candidates may, however, campaign in such a state after the primary or caucus that violates these rules. "Campaigning" for purposes of this section includes, but is not limited to, purchasing print, internet, or electronic advertising that reaches a significant percentage of the voters in the aforementioned state; hiring campaign workers; opening an office; making public appearances; holding news conferences; coordinating volunteer activities; sending mail, other than fundraising requests that are also sent to potential donors in other states; using paid or volunteer phoners or automated calls to contact voters; sending emails or establishing a website specific to that state; holding events to which Democratic voters are invited; attending events sponsored by state or local Democratic organizations; or paying for campaign materials to be used in such a state. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will determine whether candidate activities are covered by this section.

The table below shows the dates of each jurisdiction's 2004 and 2008 First Determining Step and the corresponding stage (I, II, or III).

The Bonus Delegate Detail shows the number of delegates each jurisdiction would receive with a 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, or 30% bonus. The current bonus is shown in black with other options in gray.