|The Green Papers|
2008 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions
Presidential Nominating Process
Caucus: Thursday 3 January 20081
County Conventions: Saturday 15 March 2008
District Conventions: Saturday 26 April 2008
State Convention postponed: Saturday 14 June 2008
State Convention: Saturday 28 June 2008
Delegate Selection: Caucus/Convention
Voter Eligibility: Closed Caucus
Voter Participation: Party members
57 total delegate votes - 29 district / 10 at large; 6 Pledged PLEOs; 11 Unpledged PLEOs; 1 Unpledged add-on
Here's how we compute the delegate count:
Saturday 28 June 2008 State Convention: http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2536 and http://jdeeth.blogspot.com/. In lieu of taking a Presidential preference poll at the State Convention, the campaigns chose to honor the math as if all delegates elected at the County Conventions remained committed to their Saturday 15 March 2008 County Convention preferences. Pledged PLEO delegates elected: Obama 3, Clinton 2, Edwards 1. At-Large Delegates elected: Obama 5, Clinton 3, Edwards 2.
The Obama supporters allowed the Clinton and Edwards State Convention delegates choose their National Convention Delegates however the Obama group "ratified" the choices. Hence, we have "hard coded" the Clinton (2 PLEO, 3 At-Large) and Edwards (1 PLEO, 2 At-Large) delegates as such but "soft coded" those delegates as Obama (3 PLEO, 5 At-Large) supporters.
According to the 15 May 2008 article below, 1 Edwards pledged delegate intends to cast her ballot for Obama. Accordingly, we have changed our soft pledged count from Obama 24, Clinton 14, Edwards 7 to Obama 25, Clinton 14, Edwards 6. Our hard count remains Obama 16, Clinton 9, Edwards 4 as elected at the Distict Conventions. An additional 6 Pledged PLEO and 10 At-Large Delegates will be elected at the Saturday 14 June 2008 Iowa State Democratic Convention.
15 May 2008 CNN.com: Eight Edwards delegates [1 in IA] now moving to Obama: One Edwards delegate from Iowa, Machelle Crum [CD 3], came out for Obama on Thursday morning ... Crum made the decision after receiving a phone call from Edwards supporters encouraging her to make the switch.
According ot the 16 May 2008 article below, the 3 estimated statewide Edwards delegates may go to Obama when elected on 14 June 2008 Convention. Since these delegates have not yet been elected, we are have not changed our delegate count.
16 May 2008 press-citizen.com: Edwards' delegates to go to Obama: David Redlawsk, who also is a University of Iowa political science professor, said Edwards' Wednesday announcement likely will cause three Edwards' delegates to change to Obama at the state Democratic Convention on June 14 in Des Moines.
According to the 16 May 2008 article below, 1 Edwards pledged delegate intends to cast her ballot for Obama. Accordingly, we have changed our soft pledged count from Obama 25, Clinton 14, Edwards 6 to Obama 26, Clinton 14, Edwards 5.
15 May 2008 ap.google.com: Edwards endorsement pays off for Obama: Arlene Prather-O'Kane, of Cedar Falls, Iowa, said she is a backer of Edwards but "I will support who he is endorsing — which is Barack".
3 June 2008: The Obama Campaign today announced that all 4 delegates pledged to former Senator John Edwards have committed to vote for Senator Obama at the Democratic National Convention.
Machelle Crum, Newton
15 March 2008 County Convention update.
Here's how we estimated the delegate count on 15 March 2008 (Based on the number of delegates elected to the State Convention at the County Conventions. Results from a party source. Note that zero national convention delegates are allocated during the County Conventions - national convention delegates are first elected in April.):
Here's how we estimated the delegate count on 3 January 2008 (Based on the number of delegates elected to the County Conventions at the Precinct Conventions. Results from a party source. Note that zero national convention delegates are allocated during the Precinct Conventions - national convention delegates are first elected in April.):
The Iowa Democratic Party reports that more than 239,000 Democrats caucused statewide.
Reference: Iowa Caucus Results Live
Unpledged delegates as of
Thursday 3 January 2008: Democratic Party Caucuses meet in each precinct at 6:30 PM CST. Each Precinct Caucus chooses the precinct's delegates to County Conventions based on presidential preference (which, despite the media circus that quadrennially surrounds this event, is all that will be actually decided at these Iowa caucuses!).
NOTE: Estimates will, of course, be made by media outlets as well as by the campaigns of the presidential contenders themselves as to how many of Iowa's 57 National Convention delegates each presidential contender is likely to be ultimately be receiving as a result of the Iowa caucuses but, of course, since no National Convention delegates are actually being chosen by these caucuses, all such estimates will almost certainly, come the State Convention in June, be wrong!!
Example. 57 people attend a caucus electing 3 delegates. The viability is 1/6th of 57 = 9.5 rounded which is 10. Say 29 people support candidate A, 19 support candidate B, and 9 support candidate C. Candidates A and B are viable since they have support of 10 or more of the attendees. Because candidate C did not receive the support of 10 attendees, those supporting candidate C must realign to another candidate. At this point, the attendees realign themselves so 34 support candidate A and 23 support candidate B.
The caucus will next choose the precinct's delegates to the Democratic Convention of the County in which the precinct is located (which is all, despite all the media hoopla, that will be actually decided at the Iowa caucuses!) who will be allocated in proportion to the percentage of the support each "viable" presidential contender received in the second round of balloting at the precinct caucus as of the time of its adjournment. (Estimates will, of course, be made by media outlets as well as the contenders themselves as to how many of Iowa's 57 National Convention delegates each contender will ultimately be receiving but, of course, since NO National Convention delegates are actually being chosen by these caucuses, all such estimates will almost certainly, in the end, be WRONG!!!)."
Continuing the example from above: For Candidate A: 3 (total precinct delegates) × 34 (supporters) ÷ 57 (total attendees) = 1.789 which rounds to 2 precinct delegates. Candidate B receives 3 × 23 ÷ 57 = 1.211 which rounds to 1 precinct delegate. Note: Due to rounding, the sum of precinct delegates may exceed the total number of precinct delegates allocated to the caucus. If this happens, round down the candidate with the smallest fraction. Candidates receiving 1 precinct delegate are not subject to this rule, that is, candidates cannot loose their only precinct delegate during this adjustment.
Saturday 15 March 2008: Democratic Party County Conventions convene in each county. Each County Convention chooses the county's delegates to both Congressional District Conventions and the Iowa State Convention based on presidential preference. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be viable. Delegates assigned to a non-viable candidate will realign themselves to another candidate.
Saturday 26 April 2008: Democratic Party District Conventions convene in each congressional district to choose the district's delegates to the Democratic National Convention. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the district level.
Therefore, the very first time Democratic National Convention delegates from Iowa will be allocated to presidential contenders officially will be at these Saturday 26 April 2008 District Conventions!!
Saturday 14 June 2008: The Democratic Party of Iowa has postponing its state convention originally scheduled for Saturday 14 June due to massive flooding and severe weather across Iowa. "We ask our Iowa neighbors to continue their efforts to help the families and communities impacted by the flooding" --State Party Chairman Scott Brennan.
Saturday 28 June 2008: The Iowa State Democratic Convention convenes. The State Convention chooses 16 of the Iowa's Pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.
16 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based the support for the presidential contenders in the State Convention as a whole.
The remaining 12 National Convention delegates consist of
These 12 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".
Only as of Saturday 28 June 2008 will ALL of Iowa's 57 Democratic National Convention delegates have been allocated: the estimates made re: delegate allocation as a result of the Iowa caucuses will likely not match the presidential preferences and pledges of the National Convention delegates as actually chosen because it is rather probable that the field of Democratic presidential contenders on Saturday 28 June 2008 will very well be quite different from the way that same field looked at the time the Iowa Precinct Caucuses had taken place way back in January!
|Delegation to the National Convention|
Iowa Delegation (as posted by http://www.demconvention.com/, 18 July 2008)
|Alternate Pledged District||0||0||5||5|
|Alternate Pledged PLEO||0||0||0||0|
|Alternate Pledged At-Large||0||0||3||3|
|Pledged District 1||Obama||George Dixon||Dewitt, IA|
|Pledged District 1||Obama||Jacob Krapfl||New Vienna, IA|
|Pledged District 1||Clinton||Wayne Laufenberg||Saint Donatos, IA|
|Pledged District 1||Clinton||Helen McClain||Dubuque, IA|
|Pledged District 1||Edwards||Erlene Prather-O'Kane||Cedar Falls, IA|
|Pledged District 1||Obama||Kathleen Weber||Dubuque, IA|
|Pledged District 2||Obama||Angel Gonzalez||Oakdale, IA|
|Pledged District 2||Clinton||Kathleen Krehbiel||Solon, IA|
|Pledged District 2||Obama||Richard Myers||Iowa City, IA|
|Pledged District 2||Obama||Sandra Pope||Ottumwa, IA|
|Pledged District 2||Edwards||David Redlawsk||Iowa City, IA|
|Pledged District 2||Clinton||Donald Shaffer||Ottumwa, IA|
|Pledged District 2||Obama||Peggy Whitworth||Cedar Rapids, IA|
|Pledged District 3||Obama||Nancy Bobo||Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged District 3||Edwards||Machelle Crum||Newton, IA|
|Pledged District 3||Clinton||Danny Homan||Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged District 3||Obama||Joe Judge||Albia, IA|
|Pledged District 3||Obama||Jordan Oster||Clive, IA|
|Pledged District 3||Clinton||Ione Shadduck||West Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged District 4||Obama||Eddie Diaz||Perry, IA|
|Pledged District 4||Obama||Molly Grady||Marshalltown, IA|
|Pledged District 4||Obama||Tom Harrington||Ames, IA|
|Pledged District 4||Clinton||Stephanie Imhoff||Ames, IA|
|Pledged District 4||Obama||Helen Miller||Fort Dodge, IA|
|Pledged District 4||Clinton||Alan Schroeder||Chester, IA|
|Pledged District 5||Obama||Timothy Bottaro||Sioux City, IA|
|Pledged District 5||Obama||Stephanie Cosgrove||Cherokee, IA|
|Pledged District 5||Clinton||Jason Winter||Sibley, IA|
|Pledged District 5||Edwards||Marci Wolff||Sioux City, IA|
|Pledged PLEO||Obama||Hon. Frank Cownie||Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged PLEO||Obama||Hon. Ro Foege||Mount Vernon, IA|
|Pledged PLEO||Obama||Hon. Patty Judge||West Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged PLEO||Obama||Hon. Tom Miller||Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged PLEO||Obama||Christie Vilsack||Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged PLEO||Obama||Hon. Tom Vilsack||Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Jan Bauer||Ames, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Mary Campos||Des Moines, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Catherine Crist||Cedar Rapids, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Sandra Lee Galer||Cedar Rapids, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Robert (RJ) Jarvis||Oskaloosa, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Paula Martinez||Carlisle, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Michelle Ray Michalec||Cedar Rapids, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Faith Nalani Bromwich||Tiffin, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Carlie Tartakov||Ames, IA|
|Pledged At-Large||Obama||Tammy Wetjen-Kesterson||Marengo, IA|
|Alternate Pledged District 1||Obama||Tod Bowman||Maquoketa, IA|
|Alternate Pledged District 2||Obama||Ebony Luensman||Marion, IA|
|Alternate Pledged District 3||Obama||Steven Chasse||Des Moines, IA|
|Alternate Pledged District 4||Obama||June Owens||Norwalk, IA|
|Alternate Pledged District 5||Obama||Steven Kraus||Carroll, IA|
|Alternate Pledged At-Large||Obama||Hon. Bill Gluba||Davenport, IA|
|Alternate Pledged At-Large||Obama||Allyson Story||Cedar Rapids, IA|
|Alternate Pledged At-Large||Obama||Caroline Wildin||LuVerne, IA|
|Scott Brennan||Des Moines, IA|
Delegation Vice Chair
|Sarah Swisher||Coralville, IA|
|Unpledged Add-On||Mari Culver||Des Moines, IA|
|Unpledged Congressman||Hon. Leonard Boswell||Des Moines, IA|
|Unpledged Congressman||Hon. Bruce L. Braley||Waterloo, IA|
|Unpledged Congressman||Hon. David Loebsack||Iowa City, IA|
|Unpledged DNC Member||Hon. Michael L. Fitzgerald||Waukee, IA|
|Unpledged DNC Member||Hon. Michael Gronstal||Des Moines, IA|
|Unpledged DNC Member||Richard Machacek||Winthrop, IA|
|Unpledged DNC Member||Sandy Opstvedt||Story City, IA|
|Unpledged Governor||Hon. Chet Culver||Des Moines, IA|
|Unpledged Senator||Hon. Tom Harkin||Washington, DC|
|Credentials Committee||Obama||Evan Anderson||Cedar Rapids, IA|
|Credentials Committee||Obama||Cheryl Fasano||Des Moines, IA|
|Platform Committee||Obama||Kathy Carlson||Kalona, IA|
|Platform Committee||Obama||John Norris||Des Moines, IA|
|Rules Committee||Obama||Ray Brown||Des Moines, IA|
|Rules Committee||Deborah Groene||Des Moines, IA|
|Rules Committee||Obama||LuAnn Pedrick||Urbandale, IA|
|Page||Anne Bottaro||Sioux City, IA|
|Page||Matthew Peirce||Des Moines, IA|
1 Democratic Party's "First Determining Step" of the delegate selection process.
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