|The Green Papers|
2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions
Presidential Nominating Process
Primary: Tuesday 28 February 2012
County Conventions: Thursday 3 May 2012
Congressional District Caucuses / State Convention: Friday 18 May - Saturday 19 May 2012
Delegate Selection: District: Winner-Take-All or top two; Statewide: Proportional,
Polling hours 7:00a EST (1200 UTC) / 7:00a CST (1300 UTC) to 8:00p EST (0100 UTC) / 8:00p CST (0200 UTC). Relatively small portions of this state are in CST and so the vast majority of the polls are closed by the time indicated EST, when the networks feel they can project.
Voter Eligibility: Closed Primary
Voter Affiliation: Party affiliation is changed
30 total delegates - penalty: 50% of 59 [10 base at-large / 42 re: 14 congressional districts / 3 party / 4 bonus]
The delegate selection processes herein was updated 2 March 2012.
28 February 2012 Primary returns from an official source.
The Republicans will bind delegates using the fourteen 2012 Congressional Districts (that is, the districts according to the 2010 census). However, the Board of Elections will report the results using the fifteen Congressional Districts from the 2000 census. We telephoned the Michigan State Board of Elections and were told that the state's system has not yet been updated with the new districts.
The date puts the Michigan Republican delegate selection plan in violation of the Rules of the Republican Party. Rule 15(b)(1) states
"No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held ..."
Rule 16(a) indicates that Michigan will forfeit 50% of their National Convention delegates.
"If any state or state Republican Party violates The Rules of the Republican Party relating to the timing ... the number of delegates to the national convention from that state shall be reduced by fifty percent (50%) ... "
Any Michigan Republican is eligible to participate in the primary. A registered voter declares her or his party designation by selecting a Republican ballot at the polls. The voter's choice becomes public information.
The information below has been updated to reflect the 50% penalty. The penalty reduces the delegate count to 30 and removes voting privileges from the party leader delegates. However, the party plans to send 59 delegates to the National Convention.
Tuesday 28 February 2012: Michigan's 30 delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Michigan Presidential Primary.
The Michigan Republicans will bind 2 delegates to the candidate receiving the most votes in each CD and bind the remaining delegates propotionally according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
Delegate binding: Delegates are bound to their Presidential preference from the start of the nominating process through the end of the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Delegates may not amend their Preference unless released from that commitment. Delegates become officially uncommitted if their Presidential candidate is either not allocated delegates or looses his/her delegates. Presidential candidates may not be allocated National Convention delegates if they withdraw, suspend their campaign, endorse another Presidential candidate, or seek the nomination of another political party for any political office.
Regarding the controversy about whether the 2 at-large delegates are awarded winner-take-all or proportionally:
Saul Anuzis's Statement on Michigan's Delegate Allocation March 1st, 2012 by Saul Anuzis
Statement by Saul Anuzis
At the February 4th State Committee meeting held in Lansing, the Credentials Committee unanimously passed the procedures for allocating Michiganís delegates to the National Convention in the event that the RNC imposes the 50% penalty on our delegation.
We agreed that if only 30 delegates would be designated as voting delegates, the Michigan Republicans would send 2 from each congressional committee and 2 at large. We agreed that the two at large delegates would be taken from the top of the slated delegations as submitted by the candidate who received the most votes statewide.
Last night the Credentials Committee met via teleconference and voted to apply the rules as passed unanimously on February 4th which results in the 2 at large delegates be awarded to the statewide winner, Mitt Romney.
There were no changes in rules or procedures, the Credential Committee only ratified the existing rules as previously passed after some made erroneous claims to the media that the at-large delegates would be split.
There is no disagreement amongst the members that this was the intent of the Credential Committee and there is email traffic between the committee members and counsel discussing the same.
Regrettably, there was an error in the memo drafted and sent to the respective campaigns. There were questions raised at the time the memo was drafted as to whether the legal language used was accomplishing the goal of the committee and we were advised that it was, but now it is clear that the memo did not properly communicate the intent of the committee. The email traffic surrounding the drafting of the memo in early February makes explicitly clear what the intent of the committee was.
The committee convened again last night to affirm that the intent was clear and that the memo was inaccurate. That affirmation came in a 4-2 vote. While we all regret the error in the memo, it does not change what was voted on by the committee, which was to award the two at-large delegates to the statewide winner. It was premature for any candidate to be declaring the delegate count prior to an official announcement by the Michigan Republican Party.
This is much to do about nothing. The rules were set in place, in advance, by a unanimous vote. A press conference should not force Michigan Republicans to change the rules.
Update: See the Michigan Republican Partyís Memo to the RNC on Delegate Allocation
Michigan Delegate Allocation to the 2012 Republican National Convention by Kim Jorns, Executive Director Michigan Republican Party: MI Delegate Allocation Memo.
Thanks to Marcus Graly, Matt at DemConWatch, and Kevin Heine at RightMichigan for the link to the results.
29 Aprl 2012 update. Santorum Campaign Legal Counsel Cleta Mitchell has sent the following to the Michigan Republican Party: "... after being reassured that no Santorum supporters are being disenfranchised or excluded from the process, and being advised that there will be Santorum supporters (albeit officially uncommitted) as allowed under the party rules and proportionate to the primary results, Senator Santorum has instructed me to withdraw the appeal". Source: Saul Anuzis Weekly Musing 4-29-12.
Just for grins, this is what the delegate count would have been had Michigan not been sanctioned.
Here's how we compute the delegate count:
Thursday 3 May 2012: County Conventions
Precinct delegates elected to the County Conventions elect delegates to the State Convention. This step is not formally related to Presidential Preference.
Friday 18 May - Saturday 19 May 2012: Congressional District Caucuses and State Convention.
National Convention District delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. State Convention delegates meet in Congressional District caucuses at 7p EDT on 18 May 2012. Each of the 14 Congressional District caucuses elects 3 National Convention delegates.
The 14 At-Large National Convention delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. On 19 May 2012 State Convention delegates vote on the slate of at-large delegates as proposed by the Credentials Committee.
In addition, the State Convention elects the National Committeeman and the National Committeewoman. These individuals, along with the chairman of the Michigan's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unbound delegates by virtue of their position.
19 May 2012 update from Saul Anuzis: Romney Dominates Michigan Convention winning 24 delegates to Paul's 6 delegates. MI GOP fired up to help elect President Romney!
From Doug Wead: Michigan Shocker! Ron Paul picks up more delegates. CD 1: Paul 2, CD 2: Paul 2, CD 4: Paul 1, CD 6: 1, CD 9: Paul 2. Total of 8 plus 11 alternates.
On 12 April 2011, Representative Paul Scott (Republican) introduced House Bill 4535 (2011). The bill changes the Presidential Primary from the fourth Tuesday in February to the last Tuesday in January.
13 May 2011 update: AP reports that the Michigan Republican State Committee will determine their delegate selection process during their 13 August 2011 meeting.
A report in "That's Saul Folks" Weekly Musing 5-15-11 (by Saul Anuzis) states that the Michigan Republican State Committee went into a closed session on Saturday 14 May 2011 to discuss their 2012 Presidential nominating process. Chairman Bobby Schostak appointed a sub committee to recommend a plan. The goal is to vote on the rules by August.
7 July 2011 update from the Chicago Tribune Michigan Republicans weighing primary options.
12 July 2011 update from "That's Saul Folks" Weekly Musing for 7-10-11 (by Saul Anuzis) states that the State Committee's Policy Committee unanimously passed a resolution recommending a closed primary to be held on either 28 February or 6 March 2012.
17 July 2011 update from "That's Saul Folks" Weekly Musing for 7-17-11 (by Saul Anuzis) states that the State Committee's Policy Committee unanimously passed a resolution recommending a closed primary, with the district delegates allocated winner-take-all and the at-large statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold to the full State Committee. The final decision will be made at the 13-14 August 2011 State Committee meeting.
11 August 2011 update: On Saturday 13 August 2011, the Michigan Republican Party will decide to use either a 2012 Presidential Closed Primary or a Caucus to begin their National Convention Delegate Selection process. Current state law calls for a 28 February Primary which is in violation of Republican Party timing rules. Reference: The Detroit New 11 August 2011: State GOP panel leans toward primary, not caucus.
13 August 2011 update: The Michigan Republican State Committee voted 92-17 to hold a closed presidential primary between 28 February and 6 March 2012 (Reference: Saul Anuzis).
On 24 August 2011, Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (Republican) introduced Senate Bill 0584. The bill use a panel appointed by the Governor, state Senate Majority Leader, and state House Speaker to, no later than 1 October 2011, select a date for the Presidential Primary. That date can be no earlier than 28 February and no later than 6 March 2012. If the panel does not act, the date would be 28 February 2012. The bill was amended by the state Senate to hold the primary "on the fourth Tuesday in February" which is 28 February 2012.
State law currently calls for a 28 February 2012 primary. Republican Party rules would require Michigan to forfeit half of its National Convention delegates if the party begins the process of binding National Convention delegates before 6 March 2012.
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