The Green Papers
Statewide Political Party Strength

A mathematical model of the Relative Strength
of the two Major Parties in each of the 50 States
going into the 2016 Elections


The following is a mathematical model of the Relative Strength of the two Major Parties in each of the 50 States of the American Union coming out of any 2014 or 2015 General Elections (and, thereby, going into the 2016 Election cycle), based on how each State has most recently voted for President of the United States, its own Governor, its Congressional delegation (that is: its two United States Senators plus its member[s] of the U.S. House of Representatives) and its own legislature.


The scoring system re: each State is as follows:

20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for President in the most recent election for that office (at the present time, this would be the 2012 Presidential Election, of course).

20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for Governor in the most recent election for that office (by the way, this would include Special Elections, as well as a Recall Election [such as the one held in California back in 2003]).

15 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won the most recent election to each of the State's two U.S. Senate seats (key word here: election!; a temporary appointment to fill a Senate vacancy where someone from a different Party than that of the Senator so being replaced takes the seat doesn't at all change a Party affiliation based upon the most recent election to a given seat- however, Special Elections to ultimately fill a vacancy in a U.S. Senate seat do count in the scoring).

10 points for each of the following: the State's delegation to the U.S.House of Representatives, the Upper House of the State's legislature, the Lower House of the State's legislature: each 10 point "bloc" being divided among the Major Parties based on the percentage of seats each Party holds in the chamber in question divided by 10 and rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer.

Total: 100 points (except that it is possible, due to rounding re: the three 10 point Congressional and legislative "blocs" (as defined above), to occasionally have a State's points total 1 or more than 100).

Normally, Independents and Third Party candidates elected to the aforementioned Elective Offices count no points for purposes of the following tabulation; however, as well as quite obviously, the election of those who are neither Democrats nor Republicans to said offices in a given State would, of course, keep the total score for both Major Parties below 100 in that State.

Note re: the aforementioned 100-point scoring system re: a State's delegation in the US House and each house of the State's legislature: only GENERAL Elections count (thus, Special Elections to any of said legislative chambers do NOT count here).

For those who might wish to compare the following tabulation of data going into the 2016 General Election cycle with the same data over time (that is: coming out of each even-numbered year General Election) since 2000, please also see our site's tabulation of COMPARATIVE POLITICAL PARTY PREDOMINANCE in each State, 2000 thru 2014.


The several States are arranged below by total points for the Major Party with the most points of the two Major Parties in each State and classified accordingly, from Left to Right on the so-called 'Political Spectrum':

Heavily DEMOCRATIC
(91 or more Dem points):
Hawaii(99); Rhode Island(96); Connecticut, Delaware(92); California(91).
Strongly DEMOCRATIC
(81 to 90 Dem points):
Oregon(90); New York(89) ; Minnesota(87); Washington(86); Virginia(81).
Mostly DEMOCRATIC
(71 to 80 Dem points):
Vermont(78); Massachusetts(77); Maryland (72).
Somewhat DEMOCRATIC
(61 to 70 Dem points):
Colorado(70); New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico(68); Pennsylvania(66); Michigan(61).
Leaning DEMOCRATIC
(51 to 60 Dem points):
Illinois(54).
DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS Even (50 points apiece): NONE.
Leaning REPUBLICAN
(51 to 60 GOP points):
Maine(51); Wisconsin(53); Nevada(54); Florida(55); West Virginia(56); Missouri, Montana, Ohio(57); Alaska (58).
Somewhat REPUBLICAN
(61 to 70 GOP points):
Iowa(69); Louisiana(70).
Mostly REPUBLICAN
(71 to 80 GOP points):
Indiana(78); North Dakota(80).
Strongly REPUBLICAN
(81 to 90 GOP points):
Arizona(88); Kentucky, Mississippi, Texas(90).
Heavily REPUBLICAN
(91 or more GOP points):
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina(91); Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee(93); Oklahoma, South Dakota(95); Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska(96); Utah(97); Wyoming(98).

 
Special case:
NEBRASKA has an officially non-partisan unicameral legislature (being non-partisan, it cannot count as per the "rules" for this table as stated above in any event): thus, the breakdown in Nebraska actually totals 80, not 100, points and is 77-3 in favor of the REPUBLICANS coming out of the 2014 Elections: in order to bring NE up to the level of her sister States and to, thereby, better facilitate the making of comparisons with other States, percentages determine the number of points for purposes of this particular listing (77/80= 96%... thus, NE is scored as 96 points GOP in the table above).

 


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