[First posted: 2014aug25, last update: 2014aug25]

The Green Papers
Statewide Political Party Strength

A mathematical model of the Relative Strength
of the two Major Parties in each of the 50 States
going into the 2014 Midterm Election


This is a mathematical model of the Relative Strength of the two Major Parties in each of the 50 States of the American Union going into the 2014 General Election, based on how each State has voted for President of the United States, its own Governor, its Congressional delegation (that is: its two United States Senators plus its member[s] of the U.S. House of Representatives) and its own legislature.


The scoring system re: each State is as follows:

20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for President in the most recent election for that office (at the present time, this would be the 2012 Presidential Election, of course).

20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for Governor in the most recent election for that office (by the way, this would include Special Elections, as well as a Recall Election [such as the one held in California back in 2003]).

15 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won the most recent election to each of the State's two U.S. Senate seats (key word here: election!; a temporary appointment to fill a Senate vacancy where someone from a different Party than that of the Senator so being replaced takes the seat doesn't at all change a Party affiliation based upon the most recent election to a given seat- however, Special Elections to ultimately fill a vacancy in a U.S. Senate seat do count in the scoring).

10 points for each of the following: the State's delegation to the U.S.House of Representatives, the Upper House of the State's legislature, the Lower House of the State's legislature: each 10 point "bloc" being divided among the Major Parties based on the percentage of seats each Party holds in the chamber in question divided by 10 and rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer.

Total: 100 points (except that it is possible, due to rounding re: the three 10 point Congressional and legislative "blocs" (as defined above), to occasionally have a State's points total 1 or more than 100).

Normally, Independents and Third Party candidates elected to the aforementioned Elective Offices count no points.

Note re: the aforementioned 100-point scoring system re: a State's delegation in the US House and each house of the State's legislature: only GENERAL Elections count (thus, Special Elections to any of said legislative chambers do NOT count here). Also, as regards the point values found in the tables below-- these will, in most cases, be altered- obviously- by the results of the 4 November 2014 General Election itself.


The several States are arranged below by total points for the Major Party with the most points of the two Major Parties in each State and classified accordingly, from Left to Right on the so-called 'Political Spectrum':

Heavily DEMOCRATIC
(91 or more Dem points):
Hawaii(99); Massachusetts(97); Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland(93); California(91).
Strongly DEMOCRATIC
(81 to 90 Dem points):
New York(90); Oregon(89); Minnesota, Washington(87); Colorado(85); Virginia(81).
Mostly DEMOCRATIC
(71 to 80 Dem points):
Vermont(78); Rhode Island(77); New Hampshire(76); Illinois(75).
Somewhat DEMOCRATIC
(61 to 70 Dem points):
New Mexico(68); New Jersey(67); West Virginia(65); Michigan(62).
Leaning DEMOCRATIC
(51 to 60 Dem points):
Montana(59); Nevada(51).
DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS Even (50 points apiece): Iowa.
Leaning REPUBLICAN
(51 to 60 GOP points):
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin(52); Florida(54); Arkansas, Ohio(56); Missouri(57).
Somewhat REPUBLICAN
(61 to 70 GOP points):
Alaska(63); Kentucky(69).
Mostly REPUBLICAN
(71 to 80 GOP points):
North Carolina(74); Louisiana(75); Indiana(77); North Dakota(80).
Strongly REPUBLICAN
(81 to 90 GOP points):
South Dakota(81); Arizona(86); Mississippi, Texas(89); Georgia (90).
Heavily REPUBLICAN
(91 or more GOP points):
Alabama, South Carolina(91); Tennessee(93); Utah(94); Kansas, Oklahoma(95); Idaho (96); Wyoming(98); Nebraska(100).

 
Special cases:
MAINE: Senator King is counted as an Independent. The Independent score (including 1 Independent point from seats held by Independents in the State's legislature) is 16. The DEMOCRATIC score is 41; the REPUBLICAN score is 43. Since neither MAJOR PARTY has 50 points, MAINE is not included in the above table (as it cannot be said- for the purposes of the above table- to currently favor either Party).
NEBRASKA has an officially non-partisan unicameral legislature (being non-partisan, it cannot count as per the "rules" for this table as stated above in any event): thus, the breakdown in Nebraska totals 80, not 100, points and is 80-0 in favor of the REPUBLICANS going into the 2014 Elections: in order to bring NE up to the level of her sister States and to, thereby, better facilitate the making of comparisons with other States, percentages will determine the number of points for purposes of this particular listing (80/80= 100%, of course... thus, NE is scored as 100 points GOP).


  2014 General Election Home  
 
  114th U.S. Senate Popular Vote and FEC Total Receipts by Party  
  Gubernatorial Popular Vote by Party  
  114th U.S. House Popular Vote and FEC Total Receipts by Party  
  Close Contests Summary - Decision by 2% or less  
  Contests Where No Candidate Received a Majority  
 
  Some key races to watch coming out of the USA Elections of Tuesday 4 November 2014  
 
2014 Primaries and Runoffs for Statewide offices/Congress
  Alphabetically   --   Alphabetically with Filing Deadlines  
  Chronologically   --   Chronologically with Filing Deadlines  
  Poll Closing Times  
....
General Election Poll Closing Times
  Alphabetically   --   Chronologically  
....
  Polling Hours  
....
  Governors     Senate     House  
....
  Senators by 'Class'  
  Governors by election 'cycle'  
....
  Gubernatorial Primaries at a Glance   --   Senatorial Primaries at a Glance  
....
  Open Governor's Chairs, Senate and House Seats (the incumbent is not running for re-election)  
  Governor's Chairs, Senate, and U.S. House Seats with no incumbent running for them  
  Uncontested Governor's Chairs, Senate, and U.S. House Seats (one candidate running for office)  
  Governor's Chairs, Senate, and U.S. House Seats with multiple incumbents running for them  
  Governor's Chairs, Senate, and U.S. House Seats with only one major party candidate running for office  
....
  2014 Partisan Composition by State  
....
  Political Parties  
....
  Senate Electoral Classes  
....
  Statewide Political Party Strength going into the 2014 Midterm Election  
  Statewide Political Party Strength coming out of the 2014 Midterm Elections  
....
  Relative Political Party Strength by SECTION and Region going into the 2014 Midterm Election  
  Relative Political Party Strength by SECTION and Region coming out of the 2014 Elections  
....
  Comparative Political Party Predominance in each State, 2000 thru 2012  
2012 CONGRESSIONAL Political Party Breakdown by SECTION and Region
....
History
  Political Party Floor Leaders in the Congress of the United States  
  Dates of DIRECT PRIMARY Elections re: Major Party Nominations for Statewide and/or Federal Office  
  Length of Terms of Office of STATE Governors throughout American History  
....
  (downloads)