[First posted: 21 February 2018]
The Green Papers first went online, for perusal by the Internet-using public, in late September 1999 and, as a result, the first U.S. Elections this website dealt with were those of 2000 (while the General Elections of 1999 were being held in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi early in the first November of the site's existence, The Green Papers was still more or less "getting its act together" and, therefore, the site did not at all deal with those in real time).
With the above in mind, what is seen below is simply a chart of the predominance of either of the two Major Parties (Democrat or Republican) in each State as such predominance was discerned coming out of each of the General Elections held in early November of every even-numbered year since those 2000 Elections first covered by The Green Papers.
The system of "scoring" used in this table is that utilized in the table of Statewide Political Party Strength already posted on this website in which each of the two Major Parties (along with any qualifying Independents/Third Parties) shares a percentage of a total of (optimally) 100 points in each State (an explanation of the division of said 100 points among various elective offices can be found underneath the chart itself): thus, the closer in such points a Major Party is to the maximum 100 in a given State, the more predominant it is, politically, in that State coming out of the most recent two-year Election Cycle ending in a given even-numbered calendar year.
In the chart below, a given Major Party with more than half the maximum 100 points allotted to each State for purposes of this particular mathematical model appears in the appropriate- albeit arbitrary- color (blue for the Democrats; red for the Republicans) with the number of points that Major Party has "scored" after the relevant results of the most recent even-numbered year General Elections have been factored in; 'TIE' (in black) means that each Major Party had scored 50 points apiece coming out of a given even-numbered year General Election (and, where neither Major Party garnered at least 50 points, the total points for both Major Parties are shown, also in black).
For the purposes of this chart, States which elect their Governors and/or Legislatures in odd-numbered years have the results of any such races not factored in until the General Elections in the even-numbered year immediately following said elections have themselves been held. NOTE: Because of this, neither of the State general elections held in 2017 in NEW JERSEY and VIRGINIA are (nor is the Special Election [also held in late 2017] for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from ALABAMA) factored into the data found within the column headed 2016 below.
A special case is that of Nebraska which has an officially non-partisan, as well as unicameral, legislature (and, being non-partisan, Nebraska's Legislature cannot count as per the "scoring rules" for this table in any event): the actual total of points available to Nebraska is, therefore, a mere 80; in order to bring Nebraska up to the level of her sister States and to, thereby, better facilitate the making of comparisons with other States, percentages determine the number of points for each Major Party in Nebraska only (for example: where the Republicans might score 65 out of the total 80 points in Nebraska, the Republicans are credited with 81 of 100 points [since 65/80= 81% (as rounded to the nearest whole integer]).
The scoring system re: each State is as follows:
20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for President in the most recent election for that office either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year.
20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for Governor in the most recent election for that office either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year. (By the way, this would include Special Elections, as well as a Recall Election [such as the one held in California back in 2003]).
15 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won the most recent election to each of the State's two U.S. Senate seats either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year. (Key word here: election!; a temporary appointment to fill a Senate vacancy where someone from a different Party than that of the Senator so being replaced takes the seat doesn't at all change a Party affiliation based upon the most recent election to a given seat- however, Special Elections to ultimately fill a vacancy in a U.S. Senate seat do count in the scoring).
10 points for each of the following: the State's delegation to the U.S.House of Representatives, the Upper House of the State's legislature, the Lower House of the State's legislature: each 10 point "bloc" being divided among the Major Parties based on the percentage of seats each Party won in the most recent general election (either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year) to all, or part, of the chamber in question divided by 10 and rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer.
Total: 100 points (except that it is possible, due to rounding re: the three 10 point Congressional and legislative "blocs" [as defined above], to occasionally have a State's points total 1 or more than 100).
Note re: the aforementioned 100-point scoring system re: a State's delegation in the US House and each house of the State's legislature: only GENERAL Elections count (thus, Special Elections to any of said legislative chambers do NOT count in the scoring).
The relative preponderance of a given Major Party in a given State (based on its points value as determined via the above scoring system [so long as this be at least a majority of 100]) may be categorized as follows:
|HEAVILY re: a given Party||91 or more points|
|STRONGLY re: a given Party||81 to 90 points|
|MOSTLY re: a given Party||71 to 80 points|
|SOMEWHAT re: a given Party||61 to 70 points|
|LEANING re: a given Party||51 to 60 points|