[First posted: 6 May 2015]

The Green Papers
Comparative Political Party Predominance
in each State, 2000 thru 2014

 

 

The Green Papers first went online, for perusal by the Internet-using public, in late September 1999 and, as a result, the first U.S. Elections this website dealt with were those of 2000 (while the General Elections of 1999 were being held in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi early in the first November of the site's existence, The Green Papers was still more or less "getting its act together" and, therefore, the site did not at all deal with those in real time).

With the above in mind, what is seen below is simply a chart of the predominance of either of the two Major Parties (Democrat or Republican) in each State as such predominance was discerned coming out of each of the General Elections held in early November of every even-numbered year since those 2000 Elections first covered by The Green Papers.

The system of "scoring" used in this table is that utilized in the table of Statewide Political Party Strength already posted on this website in which each of the two Major Parties (along with any qualifying Independents/Third Parties) shares a percentage of a total of (optimally) 100 points in each State (an explanation of the division of said 100 points among various elective offices can be found underneath the chart itself): thus, the closer in such points a Major Party is to the maximum 100 in a given State, the more predominant it is, politically, in that State coming out of the most recent two-year Election Cycle ending in a given even-numbered calendar year.

In the chart below, a given Major Party with more than half the maximum 100 points allotted to each State for purposes of this particular mathematical model appears in the appropriate- albeit arbitrary- color (blue for the Democrats; red for the Republicans) with the number of points that Major Party has "scored" after the relevant results of the most recent even-numbered year General Elections have been factored in; 'TIE' (in black) means that each Major Party had scored 50 points apiece coming out of a given even-numbered year General Election (and, where neither Major Party garnered at least 50 points, the total points for both Major Parties are shown, also in black).

For the purposes of this chart, States which elect their Governors and/or Legislatures in odd-numbered years have the results of any such races not factored in until the General Elections in the even-numbered year immediately following said elections have themselves been held.

A special case is that of Nebraska which has an officially non-partisan, as well as unicameral, legislature (and, being non-partisan, Nebraska's Legislature cannot count as per the "scoring rules" for this table in any event): the actual total of points available to Nebraska is, therefore, a mere 80; in order to bring Nebraska up to the level of her sister States and to, thereby, better facilitate the making of comparisons with other States, percentages determine the number of points for each Major Party in Nebraska only (for example: where the Republicans might score 65 out of the total 80 points in Nebraska, the Republicans are credited with 81 of 100 points [since 65/80= 81% (as rounded to the nearest whole integer]).

 

State
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014
Alabama R63 R84 R84 R84 R83 R91 R91 R93
Alaska R74 R93 R93 R92 R76 R61 R63 R58
Arizona R89 R71 R70 R67 R66 R90 R86 R88
Arkansas R63 D53 D53 D74 D73 R52 R56 R93
California D89 D88 D68 D68 D69 D89 D91 D91
Colorado R88 R88 R71 D53 D89 D85 D85 D70
Connecticut D68 D66 D68 D57 D60 D78 D93 D92
Delaware D80 D79 D80 D81 D84 D93 D93 D92
Florida R59 R61 R76 R75 R54 R57 R54 R55
Georgia D65 R70 R87 R87 R87 R88 R90 R91
Hawaii D95 D75 D76 D76 D78 D98 D99 D99
Idaho R98 R96 R96 R95 R90 R96 R96 R96
Illinois TIE D71 D86 D87 D88 D70 D75 D54
Indiana R52 R53 R75 R71 R51 R70 R77 R78
Iowa D65 D66 R53 D52 D73 TIE TIE R69
Kansas R92 R72 R73 R69 R72 R95 R95 R96
Kentucky R67 R68 R88 R87 R67 R67 R69 R70
Louisiana R53 R52 TIE TIE R73 R73 R75 R90
Maine D41;
R39
D60 D60 D61 D62 R61 R43;
D41
R51
Maryland D90 D72 D72 D93 D94 D92 D93 D72
Massachusetts D78 D78 D78 D98 D98 D82 D97 D77
Michigan D65 D82 D83 D83 D85 D61 D62 D61
Minnesota D67 R51 TIE D54 D69 D84 D87 D87
Mississippi R60 R61 R84 R84 R82 R87 R89 R89
Missouri R51 R68 R89 R73 R53 R57 R57 R57
Montana R77 R76 R55 D60 D60 D57 D59 R57
Nebraska R81 R81 R81 R81 R81 R81 R100 R96
Nevada R70 R73 R72 R71 D55 R51 D51 R54
New Hampshire R71 R95 R53 D62 D77 D60 D76 D68
New Jersey D63 D85 D87 D87 D88 D67 D67 D67
New Mexico TIE D70 TIE TIE D92 D68 D68 D68
New York D67 D68 D68 D90 D91 D89 D90 D89
North Carolina D51 D51 R64 R63 D73 D68 R74 R91
North Dakota R54 R54 R54 R52 R52 R79 R80 R80
Ohio R88 R90 R90 R52 D70 R55 R56 R57
Oklahoma R87 R67 R69 R69 R69 R92 R95 R95
Oregon D72 D72 D73 D74 D90 D88 D89 D90
Pennsylvania R66 D53 D53 D70 D70 R53 R52 D66
Rhode Island D62 D61 D62 D77 D78 D77 D77 D96
South Carolina R53 R73 R89 R89 R89 R90 R91 R91
South Dakota R64 R64 R69 R68 R68 R81 R81 R95
Tennessee R85 R64 R64 R64 R65 R91 R93 R93
Texas R84 R87 R89 R87 R87 R90 R89 R90
Utah R91 R92 R91 R91 R91 R93 R94 R97
Vermont D64 D46;
R44
D48;
R42
D59 D59 D78 D78 D78
Virginia R86 R70 R69 R54 D85 D62 D61 D81
Washington D87 D87 D88 D90 D90 D86 D87 D86
West Virginia D73 D71 D70 D71 D72 D68 D65 R56
Wisconsin D65 D84 D83 D86 D86 R53 R52 R53
Wyoming R95 R75 R76 R75 R75 R97 R98 R98

State
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
 
 

The scoring system re: each State is as follows:

20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for President in the most recent election for that office either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year.

20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for Governor in the most recent election for that office either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year. (By the way, this would include Special Elections, as well as a Recall Election [such as the one held in California back in 2003]).

15 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won the most recent election to each of the State's two U.S. Senate seats either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year. (Key word here: election!; a temporary appointment to fill a Senate vacancy where someone from a different Party than that of the Senator so being replaced takes the seat doesn't at all change a Party affiliation based upon the most recent election to a given seat- however, Special Elections to ultimately fill a vacancy in a U.S. Senate seat do count in the scoring).

10 points for each of the following: the State's delegation to the U.S.House of Representatives, the Upper House of the State's legislature, the Lower House of the State's legislature: each 10 point "bloc" being divided among the Major Parties based on the percentage of seats each Party won in the most recent general election (either in, or immediately prior to, a given even-numbered calendar year) to all, or part, of the chamber in question divided by 10 and rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer.

Total: 100 points (except that it is possible, due to rounding re: the three 10 point Congressional and legislative "blocs" [as defined above], to occasionally have a State's points total 1 or more than 100).

Note re: the aforementioned 100-point scoring system re: a State's delegation in the US House and each house of the State's legislature: only GENERAL Elections count (thus, Special Elections to any of said legislative chambers do NOT count in the scoring).

The relative preponderance of a given Major Party in a given State (based on its points value as determined via the above scoring system [so long as this be at least a majority of 100]) may be categorized as follows:

 
 
HEAVILY re: a given Party 91 or more points
STRONGLY re: a given Party 81 to 90 points
MOSTLY re: a given Party 71 to 80 points
SOMEWHAT re: a given Party 61 to 70 points
LEANING re: a given Party 51 to 60 points