2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions

Estimating the Vote and Delegate Count


The vote totals appearing on this website are determined in several ways. Following a primary or caucus, we post an estimated vote total and number of delegates.

The simplest estimate delegates is made by dividing the statewide popular vote by the number of congressional districts. For a state with 5 districts, assign 1/5 of the vote to each district and compute the delegates. This produces a very rough estimate.

A refinement is to take the county popular vote and apportion it accordingly to the districts. If a county is 70% in district 1 and 30% in district 2, apportion the popular vote accordingly and compute the delegates. This produces a rough estimate.

As time permits, we gather the actual vote and district breakdown from election officials and use that vote to compute the delegates. This produces a good estimate but takes a while.

The goal is to use the certified vote and district breakdown from the state party or election officials. It usually takes a month or 2 for vote totals to be certified. Certified totals may be amended which effectively restarts the calculations.


 


  Election 2020 - Presidential Primary, Caucus, and Convention Home  
 
  Presidential Candidates  
 
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  Poll Closing Times Chronologically   --   Poll Closing Times Alphabetically  
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  Chronological Cumulative Allocation of Delegates  
  Weekly Delegate Distribution and Availability  
 
Delegate Counts
  Democratic Pledged and Unpledged Summary   --   Republican Pledged and Unpledged Summary  
  Democratic Hard and Soft Summary   --   Republican Hard and Soft Summary  
 
Delegate Allocation
  Democratic Quick Reference   --   Republican Quick Reference  
  The Math Behind the Democratic Delegate Allocation   --   The Math Behind the Republican Delegate Allocation  
  Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses  
 
  Democratic Delegate Pledging and Voter Eligibility   --   Republican Delegate Binding and Voter Eligibility  
 
  Primaries at a Glance  
 
  Results Status and Date Retreived  
....
  Estimating the Delegate Count  
....

 
Documentation
  Historical Analysis of the Presidential Nominating Process  
  Historical Analysis of the apportionment of delegate votes at the National Conventions of the two major parties  
  Primary/Caucus/Convention Glossary  
  Statutory Election Information of the Several states / Presidential Primary  
  Dates of PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES re: selection and/or allocation/distribution of Delegates to Major Party National Conventions  
 
  Major Third Party Presidential Nomination Process  
 
  Straw Polls  
 
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