The Green Papers
The Math Behind the Democratic Delegate Allocation - 2016

References: Delegate Selection Rules for the 2016 Democratic National Convention and Call for the 2016 Democratic National Convention.

Primary Calendar

Delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions will begin on the first Tuesday in March (1 March 2016 [Rule 11A]) and end on the second Tuesday in June (14 June 2016 [Rule 11A]). States are required to complete their process by Saturday 25 June 2016 [Call Article III]. However,

• Iowa can schedule its first tier caucuses 29 days before the window (Monday 1 February 2016 [Rule 11A]),
• New Hampshire can hold its primary 21 days before the window (Tuesday 9 February 2016 [Rule 11A]),
• Nevada can schedule its first tier caucuses 10 days before the window (Saturday 20 February 2016 [Rule 11A]), and
• South Carolina can hold its primary 3 days before the window (Saturday 27 February 2016 [Rule 11A]).

A table listing the start date for each state is found here.

Delegate Allocation Overview

The pledged delegate "base" allocation is determined by the jurisdiction's Presidential vote in 2004, 2008, and 2012; and the jurisdiction's electoral vote allocation based on the 2000 census (for 2004 and 2008) and the 2010 census (for 2012). Jurisdictions beginning their process later in the cycle and neighboring states that concurrently begin their process (aka "clustering") receive bonus delegates.

The unpledged PLEO Democratic Delegates consist of Democratic Governors (and the Mayor of DC), Democratic U.S. House members, Democratic U.S. Senators (and the Statehood Senators of DC); DNC members; and distinguished party leaders (current and former Democratic Presidents, Democratic leadership of the U.S. House and Senate, and Chairpersons of the DNC).

[Reference: 2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention: I. F through H.]

Elections, appointments, and deaths from now until the 2016 convention roll call will keep the unpledged delegate count in flux.

Click here to skip to the current allocation.

Computation of (intermediate) Base Votes
for Jurisdictions with Electoral Votes

The rules of the Democratic National Convention call for the following formula to be used in determining the allocation of delegate votes to each jurisdiction sending a delegation to the Convention.

Each jurisdiction with electoral votes is assigned a number of Base (delegate) votes based on an "Allocation Factor" multiplied by 3,200 [Call Rule I.B.] arrived at through a calculation involving the following factors:

1. State's Democratic Vote (SDV): The jurisdiction's popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the last three Presidential Elections (2004, 2008, and 2012). Source: The vote totals for 2004 and 2008 below were obtained from FEC.gov on 24 November 2010. The vote totals for 2012 were taken from The Green Papers 2012 General Election Presidential Popular Vote and FEC Total Receipts by Party on 17 January 2013.
2. Total Democratic Vote (TDV): The total popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the last three Presidential Elections (2004, 2008, and 2012).
3. The state's Electoral Vote (SEV) averaged over the last three Presidential Elections (2004, 2008, and 2012).
4. The total Electoral Vote of all jurisdictions (538).

The formula for determining a jurisdiction's Allocation Factor is:

Allocation Factor = ½ × ( ( SDV ÷ TDV ) + ( SEV ÷ 538 ) )

The number of Base votes assigned to a state is Allocation Factor × 3,200 rounded to the nearest whole number (fractions 0.5 and above are rounded up).

To summarize, half of a jurisdiction's base vote is determined by the number of Presidential Electors assigned to that state and half are computed by the number of people who voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate in the last three elections.

[Reference: 2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention: I. A through F.]

Assignments of (intermediate) Base Votes
for Jurisdictions without Electoral Votes

Jurisdictions without Electoral votes receive the following:

• American Samoa, Guam, and the Virgin Islands are each assigned 6 at-large delegate votes.
• Democrats Abroad is assigned 12 at-large and 1 pledged PLEO delegate votes.
• Northern Marianas has 0 base delegate votes.
• Puerto Rico is assigned 44 Base Votes.

[Reference: 2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention: I. E.]

Computation of Bonus Base Votes

Bonus Base votes for 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, and 35% awards are computed by multiplying the Base votes × 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.35 respectively then rounding to the nearest whole number (fractions 0.5 and above are rounded up).

Computation of Delegate Votes

The 50 States and Puerto Rico are allocated District, At-Large, and PLEO delegates as follows:

• At-Large Delegate Votes = Base Votes × 0.25. (Fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer.) [Reference: 2106 Delegate Selection Rules for the Democratic National Convention: Rule 8. C.]
• District Delegate Votes = Base Votes - At-Large Delegate Votes. (Fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer.) [Reference: 2016 Delegate Selection Rules for the Democratic National Convention: Rule 8. C.]
• The number of District delegates plus the number of At-Large delegates must equal the Base. In most states, the rounding favors the statewide At-Large allocation. Differences are noted under each state's listing.
• PLEO Delegate Votes = Base Votes × 0.15. (Fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer.) [Call I. D.]

American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands are allocated 6 At-Large Delegate Votes. [Call I. E.]

Puerto Rico is directly allocated 44 base delegate votes. [Call I. E.]

Democrats Abroad is directly allocated 12 at-large and 1 pledged PLEO delegates. [Call I. E.]

Bonus delegate votes are awarded as pledged District and At-Large Delegate Votes.

Bonus Allocation

Bonus delegates are awarded to

• Jurisdictions holding their First Determining Step (start their delegate allocation process) later in the cycle and
• Neighboring jurisdictions who concurrently begin their process, a.k.a. clustering.

The bonus is awarded as a percentage of the pledged delegate base allocation in additional district and at-large delegates. The bonus does NOT apply to unpledged delegates.

The Presidential nomination cycle is divided into several stages:

• The pre-window begins with Iowa (no earlier than 1 February 2016 [Rule 11A]), New Hampshire (no earlier than 9 February 2016 [Rule 11A]), Nevada (no earlier than 20 February 2016 [Rule 11A]), and South Carolina (no earlier than 27 February 2016 [Rule 11A]).
• Stage I begins on 1 March 2016 [Rule 11A.] and runs through 31 March [Call Article C.1.]. No "late start" bonuses are associated with these dates.
• Stage II runs from 1 through 30 April 2016 [Call Article C.1.]. States beginning their process during this period receive a 10% bonus to the base allocation split between the district and at-large delegates [Call Article C.2.a.].
• Stage III runs from 1 May through 14 June 2016 [Call Article C.1.]. States beginning their process during this period receive a 20% bonus to the base allocation split between the district and at-large delegates [Call Article C.2.a.].
• Beginning on the 4th Tuesday in March, Tuesday 22 March 2016 [Call Article C.2.c.], a 15% bonus to the base delegate allocation is awarded when clusters of 3 or more neighboring states begin on the same date. For jurisdictions with electoral votes, Puerto Rico, and Democrats Abroad, the bonus is applied as district and At-large delegates. For American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands the bonus is applied as At-Large delegates since these jurisdictions have no district delegates. [Article I.C.2.b.i]
• Maine is considered a neighboring state of Vermont and Massachusetts. [Reg 5.1.A Article I.C.2.b]
• Alaska and Hawaii are considered neighboring states of Washington and Oregon. [Reg 5.1.B Article I.C.2.b]
• American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are considered neighboring states of each other. [Reg 5.1.C Article I.C.2.b]

The bonus is computed as (Base × percentage) then rounded to the nearest whole number.

Example: If a state has 10 Base Votes and receives a Stage 3 bonus (20%) and a Cluster bonus (15%), the state would receive a 35% bonus-- 4 additional delegate votes.

• District and At-Large Bonus = round(10 base votes × 0.35)
• = round(3.5)
• = 4

Splitting bonus delegates between the District and At-Large categories.

• The Bonus for At-Large Delegate Votes = Bonus × 0.25. Fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer. Should the rounding result in 0, set the Bonus for At-Large Delegate Votes to 1.
• The bonus for District Delegate Votes = Bonus - Bonus for At-Large Delegate Votes. Hence, the rounding favors the statewide At-Large allocation.
• There may be exceptions to the above-- in 2008, South Dakota's bonus delegate was awarded as a District rather than an At-Large delegate. In 2012, Kentucky's 10 bonus delegates were awarded as 8 District and 2 At-Large rather than 7 District and 3 At-Large. Rhode Island's 6 bonus delegates were awarded as 5 District and 1 At-Large rather than 4 District and 2 At-Large. Oregon's 10 bonus delegates are awarded as 8 District and 2 At-Large rather than 7 District and 3 At-Large.

[Reference: 2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention: I. C. 2.]

Rule 20.C.1. - Sanctions

If a jurisdiction begins their delegate selection process before the "window", that jurisdiction's pledged delegate allocation is reduced by 50% and their unpledged delegates are not allowed to vote at the National Convention.

If a candidate campaigns in violation of the "window" that candidate may receive neither pledged delegates nor delegate votes from the state where the violation occurred.

Text of Rule 20.C.1.

• a. Violation of timing: In the event the Delegate Selection Plan of a state party provides or permits a meeting, caucus, convention or primary which constitutes the first determining stage in the presidential nominating process to be held prior to or after the dates for the state as provided in Rule 11 of these rules, or in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent. In addition, none of the members of the Democratic National Committee and no other unpledged delegate allocated pursuant to Rule 9.A. from that state shall be permitted to vote as members of the state's delegation. In determining the actual number of delegates or alternates by which the state's delegation is to be reduced, any fraction below .5 shall be rounded down to the nearest whole number, and any fraction of .5 or greater shall be rounded up to the next nearest whole number.
• b. A presidential candidate who campaigns in a state where the state party is in violation of the timing provisions of these rules, or where a primary or caucus is set by a state’s government on a date that violates the timing provisions of these rules, may not receive pledged delegates or delegate votes from that state. Candidates may, however, campaign in such a state after the primary or caucus that violates these rules. “Campaigning” for purposes of this section includes, but is not limited to, purchasing print, internet, or electronic advertising that reaches a significant 1 percentage of the voters in the aforementioned state; hiring campaign workers; opening an office; making public appearances; holding news conferences; coordinating volunteer activities; sending mail, other than fundraising requests that are also sent to potential donors in other states; using paid or volunteer phones or automated calls to contact voters; sending emails or establishing a website specific to that state; holding events to which Democratic voters are invited; attending events sponsored by state or local Democratic organizations; or paying for campaign materials to be used in such a state. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will determine whether candidate activities are covered by this section.

A table, to be added at future time, will detail the date of each jurisdiction's 2016 First Determining Step, the corresponding stage (I, II, or III), and its clustering status.

The Bonus Delegate Detail shows the number of delegates each jurisdiction would receive with No Bonus, Stage I with Clustering, Stage II, Stage II with Clustering, Stage III, and Stage III with Clustering. The current bonus is shown in black with other options in gray.

Unpledged Delegates

About 1 in 6 of the delegate votes at the convention will come from "unpledged" or "Superdelegates". These delegates serve because of the office they hold or office(s) they have held. The presidential preference of these delegates is not a factor in their selection as delegates. Unpledged delegates are:

• The approximately 442 elected members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
• The size of each member's vote is the same as cast at meetings of the DNC-- those with fractional votes are the 8 DNC members from Democrats Abroad. Each casts ½ vote. [Reference: 2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention: I. F.]
• Democratic Governors of the 50 states along with the following officeholders (assuming, of course, that they are Democrats):
  • the territorial Governor of American Samoa
  • the Mayor of the District of Columbia
  • the territorial Governor of Guam
  • the Governor of Puerto Rico
  • the territorial Governor of the Virgin Islands
• Democratic Senators and House members from the 50 states plus the following Non-voting members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives (again, assuming that they are Democrats):
  • the House Delegate from American Samoa
  • the House Delegate from the District of Columbia
  • the two "Shadow" Senators from the District of Columbia
  • the House Delegate from Guam
  • the Resident Commissioner (House Delegate) from Puerto Rico
  • the House Delegate from the Virgin Islands
  • the House Delegate from the Northern Marianas
• Distinguished Party Leaders (current and former U.S. Presidents and Vice-Presidents who were elected as Democrats, former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate and U.S. House [including former Democratic Speakers of the House and former Democratic Leaders in both houses of Congress], and former National and General Chairs of the Democratic National Committee. The weight of each DNC member's vote (1 whole vote or a fraction of a vote) is the same as (s)he is allowed to cast at DNC meetings.

The number of "Unpledged" delegates to the Democratic National Convention is subject to change due to deaths, resignations from office (for those PLEOs who hold an elective office) or accession- by a Democrat- to an elective office through an intervening election or special election. In addition, any Unpledged PLEO who shall subsequently become a Pledged PLEO may further alter the number of Unpledged National Convention delegates within a given delegation.

[Reference: 2016 Call for the Democratic National Convention: I. F through H.]

Awarding Delegates to candidates

During the primaries, caucuses, and conventions delegates are "won" by candidates as follows:

• District Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the vote in each Congressional (or other) District.
• At-Large Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the statewide vote. (Fine point: If a presidential candidate is no longer a candidate at the time of selection of the at-large delegates, that candidate receives NO at-large delegates [Reference: 2016 Delegate Selection Rules for the Democratic National Convention: Rule 10.C.]. In most jurisdictions, the delegates are selected [according to the results of the primary or caucus] some time after the primary.)
• Pledged PLEO Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the statewide vote.
• Unpledged Delegates vote their conscience.

DNC Members

"In a relative handful of cases, a Member of Congress or a Governor is also a member of the Democratic National Committee (in some of these cases, such as that of the Democrats' Congressional Leaders- House Minority Leader and Senate Majority Leader- Members of Congress are DNC members ex-officio; in other cases, however, they represent various associated committees or organizations affiliated with the DNC: for example, U.S. Senators sit on the DNC as representatives of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee- likewise, Congressmen and Governors sit on the DNC as representatives of, respectively, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Governors' Association); the Democratic Party lists these Unpledged PLEOs who are DNC members as well as holders of elective office solely as DNC members (in other words, as far as the Party is concerned, these people are "Party Leaders" more than "Elected Officials"). However, it is the considered opinion of "The Green Papers" that the average user of this web site is going to think of these few Unpledged PLEOs who are in the unique position of being both PLs AND EOs more in terms of their elected office than their DNC membership: as a result, "The Green Papers" has "converted" DNC members who happen also to be Governors, Senators and Representatives to their political office from their DNC membership. Therefore, the breakdown in each state or other jurisdiction of Unpledged PLEOs as posted on "The Green Papers" may differ somewhat from that put out by the Democratic Party itself: where this is the case, it is so indicated on the appropriate DEMOCRAT page for the affected state or other jurisdiction."

Replacing Unpledged Delegates

Unpledged delegates shall not be entitled to a replacement, nor shall the state be entitled to a replacement, except under the following conditions:

1. Members of Congress and Democratic Governors shall not be entitled to name a replacement. In the event of changes or vacancies in the state's Congressional Delegation, following the official confirmation and prior to the commencement of the national convention, the DNC Secretary shall recognize only such changes as have been officially recognized by he Democratic Caucus of the U. S. House of Representatives or the Democratic Conference of the U. S. Senate. In the event of a change or vacancy in he state's office of Governor, the DNC shall recognize only such changes as have been officially recognized by he Democratic Governors' Association.
2. Members of the DNC shall not be entitled to a replacement, nor shall the state be entitled to a replacement, except in the case of death of such delegates. In the case where the state's DNC membership changes following the DNC Secretary's official confirmation, but prior to the commencement of the Democratic National Convention, acknowledgment by the Secretary of the new DNC member certification shall constitute verification of the corresponding change of unpledged delegates.
3. Distinguished Party Leader delegates allocated to the state shall not be entitled to name a replacement, nor shall the state be entitled to name a replacement.
4. In no case may an alternate cast a vote for an unpledged delegate.

2016 DNC Reference Materials

• Delegate Selection Calendar (TBD)
• Call for Convention (TBD)
• Delegate Selection Rules (TBD)