|The Green Papers|
2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions
South Carolina Republican
Presidential Nominating Process
Primary: Saturday 21 January 2012
County Conventions: March 2012 (tentative)
District Conventions: April 2012 (tentative)
State Convention: Saturday 19 May 2012
Delegate Selection: Winner-Take-All (by district and statewide),
Polling hours 7:00a EST (1200 UTC) to 7:00p EST (0000 UTC).
Voter Eligibility: Open Primary
Voter Affiliation: Voter registration does not include party affiliation
25 total delegates - penalty: 50% of 50 [10 base at-large / 21 re: 7 congressional districts / 3 party / 16 bonus]
The delegate selection processes herein, was updated on 1 November 2011.
South Carolina may begin their delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions on Wednesday 1 February 2012. [The Rules of the Republican Party - Rule 15(b)(1)]. On 3 October 2011, the South Carolina Republican Party announced they will hold their 2012 Presidential Primary on 21 January 2012. SCGOP Chairman Connelly announces 2012 Presidential Primary date. The January date appears to put the South Carolina Republican delegate selection plan in violation of the Rules of the Republican Party [Rule 15(b)(1)]. Rule 16(a) indicates that South Carolina will forfeit 50% of their National Convention delegates.
The information below was updated on 27 December 2011 to reflect the process with the 50% penalty applied.
... the South Carolina Republican Party shall conduct a statewide presidential preference primary on a date within two weeks after the New Hampshire Republican Primary or earlier if necessary to preserve South Carolina's "First in the South" status. [South Carolina Republican Party Rules - Rule 11(b)(1)]
Saturday 21 January 2012:
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the South Carolina's Republican Party, will attend the convention as
Each congressional district delegate ... shall be bound during the first ballot .... However, if the candidate to which a delegate is bound falls below 30% of the vote on the first ballot, that delegate automatically is released before the second ballot [that is, bound for 2 ballots unless the candidate receives less than 30% -Ed] ... Each delegate-at-large shall be bound for the first ballot ... [South Carolina Republican Party Rules - Rule 11(b)(4), (5), and (6)]
We have it on good authority that- this evening- the vote from the SOUTH CAROLINA Republican Primary is not being displayed by Congressional District by the South Carolina Election Commission because the District boundaries are still not set due to court challenges over Reapportionment after the 2010 Census.
This is being noted in order to remind interested persons that any report of delegates per candidate per Congressional District in South Carolina you might see in various sources right now may well be subject to future change; and this may also prove to also be an issue in States holding primaries and/or caucuses later on!
We have estimated the vote by CD by interpolating the county results from the South Carolina Elections Commission (see the Counties Reporting or Reports tab). We visually estimated the percentage of each county in each Congressional District using this map from Ballotpedia.org. Finally, we interpolated the county results to CD: for example, if a candidate receives 100 votes in county X and 70% of county X is in CD 1 and 30% is in CD 2, the votes would be apportioned as CD 1 = 70 and CD 2 = 30.
Here's how we compute the delegate count:
Comments submitted by Jorge E. Souss:
You stated that Mitt Romney likely won the Charleston-based SC-01, which would give him 2 of SC's 25 delegates (with the other 23 going to Newt Gingrich. However, only part of Charleston County is in the SC-01, with the most liberal areas being placed in the black-majority SC-06. See: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/File:SC_Congressional_House_Passed.JPG
Romney carried Charleston County and Beaufort County to its west (you had forgotten about Beaufort when you stated that Romney had only carried Charleston and Richland Counties in the state), but Newt strongly carried suburban Berkeley and Dorchester Counties and Colleton County, and got over 1,000 more votes in the five counties that are partly in the SC-01. While Berkeley and Dorchester Counties have a lot of land area in the SC-06, these are mostly rural-black majority precincts, and the lion's share of GOP primary votes are in the SC-01. On the other hand, the liberal precincts placed in SC-06 include a lot of liberal Republicans who likely voted for Romney, so his vote margin in the SC-01 portion of Charleston County could be substantially lower.
I think that it is likelier than not that Newt carried the SC-01, albeit narrowly, which would give him all 25 delegates from SC. I could be wrong about that, but, in any event, without precinct data allocated by CD, it is not possible to conclude that Romney won two delegates last night.
The main problem with that approach is that comparing the land area in the SC-01 and the SC-06 won't tell you how many people--much less how many Republican voters--are in the Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester and Colleton County portions in each CD. Berkeley and Dorchester Counties in particular have the lion's share of their population in suburban areas that are overwhelmingly white and Republican and were placed in the SC-01, with far less populated rural precincts usually having black majorities and placed in the black-majority SC-06. Estimating GOP turnout based on how much of the land area is in the SC-01 just wouldn't work.
As for Charleston County, the area that was placed in the SC-06 has a black majority, but also includes liberal white neighborhoods with Democrats and liberal Republicans. My intuition is that GOP primary voters in the SC-06 portion of Charleston will tend to be more likely to vote for Romney than for Gingrich, so part of Romney's Charleston vote advantage will not help him in carrying SC-01.
Basically, we need to wait for precinct numbers before knowing for sure whether Gingrich or Romney carried the SC-01 and thus won its two delegates. While a couple of analysts have concluded that, surprisingly, Gingrich probably carried the SC-01 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/01/22/three_takeaways_from_south_carolina_112861.html, http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/288836/new-delegate-leader-newt-gingrich), I don't think that they had the benefit of full precinct results. If I were you, I wouldn't allocate those two delegates to either candidate, keeping them as "undetermined" for the time being.
I just noticed that the estimate for the primary vote that you attached has Gingrich and Romney getting 59,000 votes in the black-majority, overwhelmingly Democrat SC-06 and getting only 56,000 in the 80%-white, heavily Republican SC-01. The geographic-based estimate greatly overstates the GOP primary vote in the SC-06 and thus understates the GOP primary vote in the SC-01 (and the SC-02).
Comments submitted by David Nir (Daily Kos)
Daily Kos has an interesting analysis of the SC GOP primary results from SC-01. They did a careful precinct-by-precinct canvass, using results from South Carolina's official website, and concluded that Romney narrowly won CD 1-- 36,606 (35.6%) to 35,195 (34.3%). The story is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/25/1058335/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest:-1-25#20120125100413 and the spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B99k6QrlThx6NmU4MTg2ZmQtMjEyYi00NTRlLThiNjktZDczYmYzMzYzYjQ2&hl=en_US.
30 January 2012: The SC GOP released the following statement: "SCGOP Releases Final Delegate Numbers: Gingrich Wins 23, Romney Wins 2 ... With 100% of 2,117 precincts reporting, the statewide primary winner was Newt Gingrich. Gingrich won 11 at-large delegates with 40.43% of the vote. Mitt Romney finished second, winning no at large delegates with 27.85% of the vote ... Gingrich also won two delegates in each of the following Congressional districts: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th (for a total of 12 delegates). Romney won two delegates by winning the first Congressional district."
As of 1 November 2011, the date for the County Conventions has not been set.
March 2012 (tentative): The County Conventions convene to elect delegates to the District and State Conventions [South Carolina Code of Laws - Section 7-9-70] [South Carolina Republican Party Rules - Rule 5 (c)(5)]
As of 1 November 2011, the date for the District conventions has not been set.
April 2012 (tentative): District conventions convene to elect National Convention District Delegates according to the results of the primary. [Rule 6 (c)(6)(a)]
Saturday 19 May 2012: The State Convention convenes to elect the At-Large National Convention District Delegates according to the results of the primary. [Section 7-9-100]
... the State Convention shall ... elect a national committeeman and national committeewoman and to elect at-large delegates ... to the National Convention. [South Carolina Republican Party Rules - RULE 7 (b)(6)]
South Carolina may begin their delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions on Wednesday 1 February 2012. [The Rules of the Republican Party - Rule 15(b)(1)].
On 28 June 2011, South Carolina Governor Nikki Randhawa Haley (Republican) vetoed state funding for the 2012 Presidential Primaries. The Republican Party has stated that it will raise $1,500,000 to fund the primary. Story here.
On 17 October 2011, Beaufort, Chester, Greenville, and Spartanburg Counties filed suit to stop the 21 January 2012 Republican Presidential Primary unless the Republican Party covers the costs of the election. Story from the Washington Post is here.
On 22 November 2011, the South Carolina Supreme Court voted 3-2 to allow the primary to go on as planned. That this, for Court refused to block the primary. Story from NPR is here.
On 3 October 2011, the South Carolina Republican Party announced they will hold their 2012 Presidential Primary on 21 January 2012. SCGOP Chairman Connelly announces 2012 Presidential Primary date.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY
Columbia, S.C. – SCGOP Chairman Chad Connelly today announced South Carolina’s 2012 Republican Presidential Primary date. Chairman Connelly commented:
"Last Friday, a nine person committee brought chaos to the 2012 calendar. Today, South Carolina is making things right.
South Carolina Republicans have a thirty year track record of picking the eventual Republican Presidential nominee. We will continue that historic tradition on January 21, 2012.
It will undoubtedly be a spirited campaign to make Barack Obama just the worst ONE term President in American history. We are united in this mission, and any candidate who ignores South Carolina does so at great peril.
Additional Note: In conjunction with Fox News, the South Carolina Republican Party will also host a 'First in the South' Republican Debate in the days leading up to the primary."
The January date appears to put the South Carolina Republican delegate selection plan in violation of the Rules of the Republican Party. Rule 15(b)(1) states
"No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held ..."
Rule 16(a) indicates that South Carolina will forfeit 50% of their National Convention delegates.
"If any state or state Republican Party violates The Rules of the Republican Party relating to the timing ... the number of delegates to the national convention from that state shall be reduced by fifty percent (50%) ... "
|Links Links to other web sites|
|Constitution Links to State Constitutions|
|• South Carolina Code of Laws|
|• South Carolina State Election Commission|
|• South Carolina's Voter Information Resource|
|Legislature Links to State Legislatures|
|• South Carolina Legislature|
|• South Carolina Republican Party|
|• The South Carolina Senate Republican Caucus|
|Media & others|
|• FITSNews - Sic Willie|
|• Greenville Magazine|
|• Lexington County Chronicle|
|• Politics1.com - South Carolina|
|• South Carolina Citizens for Life (SCCL is a non-partisan, non-sectarian pro-life organization and is the state affiliate of the National Right to Life Committee)|
|• Spartanburg Herald-Journal|
|• Statehouse Report - Charleston|
|• The Greenville News|
|• The Item - Sumter|
|• The Lancaster News|
|• The News & Reporter - Chester County|
|• The Post and Courier - Charleston|
|• The Times and Democrat - Orangeburg|
|• The Union Daily Times|
|• WCSC TV - CBS - Charleston|
|• WIS TV - NBC - Columbia|
|• WLTX TV - CBS - Columbia|
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