[First posted: 4 may 2015;
Last updated: 7 July 2015]
The following is a mathematical model of the Relative Strength of the two Major Parties in each of the 50 States of the American Union coming out of the 2014 General Election, based on how each State has voted for President of the United States, its own Governor, its Congressional delegation (that is: its two United States Senators plus its member[s] of the U.S. House of Representatives) and its own legislature.
The scoring system re: each State is as follows:
20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for President in the most recent election for that office (at the present time, this would be the 2012 Presidential Election, of course).
20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for Governor in the most recent election for that office (by the way, this would include Special Elections, as well as a Recall Election [such as the one held in California back in 2003]).
15 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won the most recent election to each of the State's two U.S. Senate seats (key word here: election!; a temporary appointment to fill a Senate vacancy where someone from a different Party than that of the Senator so being replaced takes the seat doesn't at all change a Party affiliation based upon the most recent election to a given seat- however, Special Elections to ultimately fill a vacancy in a U.S. Senate seat do count in the scoring).
10 points for each of the following: the State's delegation to the U.S.House of Representatives, the Upper House of the State's legislature, the Lower House of the State's legislature: each 10 point "bloc" being divided among the Major Parties based on the percentage of seats each Party holds in the chamber in question divided by 10 and rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer.
Total: 100 points (except that it is possible, due to rounding re: the three 10 point Congressional and legislative "blocs" (as defined above), to occasionally have a State's points total 1 or more than 100).
Normally, Independents and Third Party candidates elected to the aforementioned Elective Offices count no points for purposes of the following tabulation; however, as well as quite obviously, the election of those who are neither Democrats nor Republicans to said offices in a given State would, of course, keep the total score for both Major Parties below 100 in that State.
Note re: the aforementioned 100-point scoring system re: a State's delegation in the US House and each house of the State's legislature: only GENERAL Elections count (thus, Special Elections to any of said legislative chambers do NOT count here). Also, as regards the point values for the States of KENTUCKY (which elects its Governor in 2015), LOUISIANA and MISSISSIPPI (which elect both their respective Governors and both chambers of their respective legislatures in 2015), and NEW JERSEY and VIRGINIA (each of which holds legislative elections in 2015) found in the tables below: these will, in many cases, be altered- obviously- by the results of their respective upcoming 2015 General Elections; therefore, those who might wish to apply such data to their own interpretations of same in anticipation of the 2016 General Election (including that for President of the United States) should be aware of this.
For those who might wish to compare the following tabulation of data coming out of the 2014 General Election with the same data going into the 2014 General Election, please also see our site's tabulation of STATEWIDE POLITICAL PARTY STRENGTH going into the 2014 Midterm Election.
The several States are arranged below by total points for the Major Party with the most points of the two Major Parties in each State and classified accordingly, from Left to Right on the so-called 'Political Spectrum':
2015 General Election Home