[First posted 2008sep15, last update 2008sep15]
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Introduction: The following table is an indicator of the relative electoral strength of the Major Political Parties in each State as determined from the election results through each two-year "election cycle" (the terms of the elective officers, the elections of whom have been utilized in the data presented below, being two years or a multiple thereof) over the three most recent such "election cycles". The elections used herein are those for President, Governor, United States Senate, a State's members of the U.S. House of Representatives and members of a State's legislature. Each State is given a maximum of 100 points and the "score" of each Party in relation thereto can, therefore, be read as if a percentage (thus, a political Party that is given a score of 70 points as of the results of a given "election cycle" can be read as having a "Statewide electoral strength" of "70 percent"). The actual methodology of determining each Party's score in each State is fully explained underneath the following table. For now, it will be noted that only the score of the Party with the higher score of the two Major Parties in a given State is listed in the table below. In addition, the change in Party score over time (both four years and two years) is also indicated- such change always being related to the higher-scoring Party in that State as of the 2006/07 "election cycle". Finally, in those States which hold their State elections in odd-numbered years, said elections are combined with Federal elections from the immediately preceding even-numbered year to produce a Party's score (hence the very use of '2006/07' to designate a particular "election cycle"). |
| STATE | 2002/03 | 2004/05 | 2006/07 | Change: '02/3-'06/7 | Change: '04/5-'06/7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALABAMA | R 84 | R 84 | R 84 | None | None |
| ALASKA | R 93 | R 93 | R 92 | R-1 | R-1 |
| ARIZONA | R 71 | R 70 | R 67 | R-4 | R-3 |
| ARKANSAS | D 53 | D 53 | D 74 | D+21 | D+21 |
| CALIFORNIA | D 88 | D 68 | D 68 | D-20 | D-20 |
| COLORADO | R 88 | R 71 | D 53 | D+41 | D+24 |
| CONNECTICUT | D 66 | D 68 | D 57 | D-9 | D-11 |
| DELAWARE | D 79 | D 80 | D 81 | D+2 | D+1 |
| FLORIDA | R 61 | R 76 | R 75 | R+14 | R-1 |
| GEORGIA | R 70 | R 87 | R 87 | R+17 | None |
| HAWAII | D 75 | D 76 | D 76 | D+1 | None |
| IDAHO | R 96 | R 96 | R 95 | R-1 | R-1 |
| ILLINOIS | D 71 | D 86 | D 87 | D+17 | D+1 |
| INDIANA | R 53 | R 75 | R 71 | R+18 | R-4 |
| IOWA | D 66 | R 53 | D 52 | D-14 | D+5 |
| KANSAS | R 72 | R 73 | R 69 | R-3 | R-4 |
| KENTUCKY | R 88 | R 88 | R 67 | R-21 | R-21 |
| LOUISIANA | D 66 | 50/50 | R 71 | R+37 | R+21 |
| MAINE | D 60 | D 60 | D 61 | D+1 | D+1 |
| MARYLAND | D 72 | D 72 | D 93 | D+21 | D+21 |
| MASSACHUSETTS | D 78 | D 78 | D 98 | D+20 | D+20 |
| MICHIGAN | D 82 | D 83 | D 83 | D+1 | None |
| MINNESOTA | R 51 | 50/50 | D 54 | D+5 | D+4 |
| MISSISSIPPI | R 84 | R 84 | R 84 | None | None |
| MISSOURI | R 68 | R 89 | R 73 | R+5 | R-16 |
| MONTANA | R 76 | R 55 | D 60 | D+36 | D+15 |
| NEBRASKA | R 85 | R 85 | R 85 | None | None |
| NEVADA | R 73 | R 72 | R 71 | R-2 | R-1 |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | R 95 | R 53 | D 62 | D+57 | D+15 |
| NEW JERSEY | D 87 | D 87 | D 87 | None | None |
| NEW MEXICO | D 70 | 50/50 | 50/50 | D-20 | D-20 |
| NEW YORK | D 68 | D 68 | D 90 | D+22 | D+22 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | D 51 | R 64 | R 63 | R+14 | R-1 |
| NORTH DAKOTA | R 54 | R 54 | R 52 | R-2 | R-2 |
| OHIO | R 90 | R 90 | R 53 | R-37 | R-37 |
| OKLAHOMA | R 67 | R 69 | R 69 | R+2 | None |
| OREGON | D 72 | D 74 | D 74 | D+2 | None |
| PENNSYLVANIA | D 53 | D 53 | D 70 | D+17 | D+17 |
| RHODE ISLAND | D 61 | D 62 | D 77 | D+16 | D+15 |
| SOUTH CAROLINA | R 73 | R 89 | R 89 | R+16 | None |
| SOUTH DAKOTA | R 64 | R 69 | R 68 | R+4 | R -1 |
| TENNESSEE | R 64 | R 66 | R 64 | None | R -2 |
| TEXAS | R 87 | R 89 | R 87 | None | R -2 |
| UTAH | R 92 | R 91 | R 91 | R -1 | None |
| VERMONT | D 46 | D 48 | D 59 | D+13 | D+11 |
| VIRGINIA | R 69 | R 69 | R 52 | R-17 | R-17 |
| WASHINGTON | D 87 | D 88 | D 90 | D+3 | D+2 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | D 71 | D 70 | D 71 | None | D+1 |
| WISCONSIN | D 84 | D 83 | D 86 | D+2 | D+3 |
| WYOMING | R 75 | R 76 | R 75 | None | R+1 |
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there are 100 points total for each State to be divided between the Major Parties: These 100 points are assigned to (or divided between) the Major Parties based on the following point values for each of these relevant elective offices (or- in the case of legislative bodies- collections of offices): State's vote for PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: 20 points State's GOVERNOR: 20 points each UNITED STATES SENATOR from a State: 15 points (total for both U.S. Senators from a State= 30 points) State's members of the U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: 10 points members of the upper house of a State's LEGISLATURE: 10 points members of the lower house of a State's LEGISLATURE: 10 points total number of points: 100 (20 [President]+ 20 [Governor] + 15 [U.S. Senator] + 15 [U.S. Senator] + 10 [U.S. House] + 10 [upper chamber, legislature] + 10 [lower chamber, legislature] = 100) These points are distributed between the Major Parties in the following manner (and, please note, that Independents or Third-Party candidates elected create "blank" points within the 100 points allocated to each State; that is, it is possible for the sum of the number of points gained by Democrats and the number of points gained by Republicans to be less than the full 100 where Independent/Third-Party candidates might have won election to these offices; in addition, where Independents and/or Third Party candidates might have won U.S. Senate seats or Governorships- or even a plurality of a State's vote for President- the Major Party with the higher "electoral score" in the State could then have gained less than a majority of the [that is, less than 50] points and still have more points than the other Major Party): 20 points re: a State's VOTE for PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The Major Party of the candidate who wins a plurality of the vote for President of the United States in the most recent Presidential Election gains 20 points. An Independent or Third-Party candidate for President winning a plurality in a given State gains no points for either Major Party. 20 points re: a State's GOVERNOR: The Major Party of the winning candidate for Governor in the State's most recent Gubernatorial Election gains 20 points. A victorious Independent or Third-Party candidate for the Governorship gains no points for either Major Party. [NOTE: if the Party of a person filling a vacancy in the Governorship through mere constitutional and/or legal succession (that is, absent an intervening election) happens to be differ from the Party of the Governor elected in the most recent Gubernatorial Election, the Party of the Governor elected in the most recent Gubernatorial Election remains controlling; however, if a vacancy is filled by Special Election (or an equivalent- such as a Recall Election), the Party gaining 20 points is the Party of the person winning such Special Election or equivalent, even where this Party differs from that of the candidate winning the previous regular Gubernatorial Election.] 15 points re: each of a State's UNITED STATES SENATORS: The Major Party of the winning candidate for United States Senator in the most recent Senatorial Election re: a given United States Senate seat gains 15 points. A victorious Independent or Third-Party candidate for a U.S. Senate seat gains no points for either Major Party re: that U.S. Senate seat. [NOTE: if the Party of a person filling a vacancy in the U.S. Senate through mere appointment to that seat by the State's Governor (that is, absent an intervening election) happens to be differ from the Party of the U.S. Senator elected in the most recent Senatorial Election, the Party of the U.S. Senator elected in that most recent Senatorial Election remains controlling; however, if a vacancy is filled by Special Election, the Party gaining these points is the Party of the person winning such Special Election, even where this Party differs from that of the candidate winning the previous regular Senatorial Election.] 10 Points re: a State's delegation to the U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: The Major Parties split 10 points between them based on the percentage of seats in the State's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives they have won in the most recent regular Federal Election (General Election for United States Congress); points are rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer: for instance, if a State has 19 seats in the U.S. House and 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans have been elected in the most recent Congressional election in November of an even-numbered year, the Democratic Party will gain 6 points (as the Democrats have, here, won 63.16 % of the U.S. House seats from the State, entitling them to 6.316 points- rounded down to 6) and the Republican Party will gain the remaining 4 points (as the GOP has won 36.84% of the U.S. House seats from the State, entitling them to 3.684 points- rounded up to 4). 10 points re: each chamber of a State's LEGISLATURE: The Major Parties split 10 points between them based on the percentage of seats in each house of the State's legislature they have won in the most recent regular election for at least some members of that house (General Election for either house, or both houses, of the State's legislature); points are rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer: for instance, if a State has 33 seats in its State Senate and 25 Republicans and 8 Democrats is the breakdown of the State Senate based on the returns from the most recent election for at least part, if not all, of the State Senate, the Democratic Party will gain 2 points (as the Democrats have, here, won 24.24 % of total number of State Senate seats, entitling them to 2.424 points- rounded down to 2) and the Republican Party will gain the remaining 8 points (as the GOP has won 75.76% of the U.S. House seats from the State, entitling them to 7.576 points- rounded up to 8). NOTE re: Independent and/or Third Party members of either the U.S. HOUSE or State LEGISLATURE: Any Independent and/or Third Party members of either the U.S. House of Representatives or either house (if not both houses) of a State's legislature will result in "blank points" (points not gained by either Major Party). For example, a lower house of a State's legislature consisting of 177 members has the following breakdown following the most recent legislative election: 93 Democrats, 72 Republicans and 12 Independents; in such a case, the Democrats gain 5 points (since Democrats won 52.54% of the seats in that chamber- thus the Democratic Party is entitled to 5.254 points- rounded down to 5), while the Republicans gain 4 points (since the GOP won 40.68% of the seats in that chamber- thus the Republican Party is entitled to 4.068 points- rounded down to 4); the 1 remaining point- of the 10 points for that chamber- is "blank" (because Independents won 6.78% of the seats in that chamber- thus, 0.678 points- rounded up to 1). Special case: NEBRASKA The Legislature of the State of Nebraska is unicameral and, in addition, elections to it are non-partisan: thus, no data can be discerned from legislative elections in that State which can at all be utilized in the table above. Therefore, in the case of Nebraska- and Nebraska only- the State's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives is worth 30 points (on a working theory that, like a State's legislature, the breakdown of members of the U.S. House reflects any sub-State [quasi-local] political Party electoral strength: thus the 20 points accorded to the legislature in other States is added to the 10 points normally assigned to other States' delegations to the U.S. House [20+10=30]), as this will allow Nebraska's electoral strength "score" to be fairly compared to the scores of other States. |