The Green Papers - General Election 2004
Contests to Watch and Polling Data

Updated 1 November 2004

Outlook for the Presidency in the 2 November Election (updated 28 October 2004):

Since 1972, 6 states have always voted for the winning Presidential Candidate: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee. (Reference: 1972-2000 Presidential Election State Voting Trends Sorted by How often a state voted for the Winner.) The polls in these states show 5 prefer Bush and 1 as a toss-up.

Five states: Delaware, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania have voted for the winner 88% of the time since 1972. The polls in these states show 4 are toss-ups and 1 prefers Kerry.

Electoral vote polling data as of 23 October 2004-- Bush: 208, Kerry: 207, Undecided: 123.

Between 23 to 28 October, the polls showed little significant movement: The toss-up states remained toss-ups. There is however, a small trend in the toss-up states of Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia towards Bush and a small trend in the toss-up state of Pennsylvania towards Kerry. Colorado Amendment 36, which would have Colorado's 9 electoral votes allocated proportionately, appears to be headed to defeat.

Electoral vote polling data as of 17 and 23 October 2004-- Bush: 208, Kerry: 207, Undecided: 123.

Outlook for the U.S. Senate in the 2 November Election (updated 27 October 2004):

Of the 34 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2004:

  • for the Democrats: 13 Senate seats are certain or reasonably certain.
  • for the Republicans: 11 Senate seats certain or reasonably certain.

This gives the Democrats 42, the Republicans 47, and 1 Independent. 10 U.S. Senate seats are left in SOME kind of "play"...

Of these 10 "in play", 1 leans Democratic and 1 leans Republican... neither Party, thus, has control of the Senate going by this total of 8 certain/likely seats alone...

This leaves 8 Senate seats with toss-ups that can go either way (and, if you then- if only for the sake of the argument- do that ol' coin flip-as-chance thing and split these 8 between the Parties, you actually end up with a quite possible result of the 2 November elections re: the U.S. Senate of 47 Democrats, 52 Republicans and 1 Independent...

All of which means that, should these numbers hold, there will be NO CHANGE (Republican in nominal functional control of the Senate) as a result of this year's General Election.

Between 23 to 27 October, the polls showed the following changes:

  • South Carolina Senate Class 3: from toss-up to leaning Republican.
  • Kentucky Senate Class 3: from Republican to toss-up.
  • Wisconsin Senate Class 3: from Democratic to Leaning Democratic.

Our 23 October numbers were Republicans: 52, Democrats: 47, Independent: 1.

Outlook for the House of Representatives in the 2 November Election (updated 28 October 2004):

  • for the Democrats: 191 House seats certain or reasonably certain (not including the 1 Independent from VERMONT who tends to vote with the Democrats).
  • for the Republicans: 207 House seats certain or reasonably certain.

Leaving 36 U.S. House seats in at least SOME kind of "play"...

Of these 36 "in play", 6 lean Democratic (giving the Democrats 197 along with the 1 "indy") while 17 lean Republican (giving the GOP side of the House aisle 224 and, thereby, retention of control of the House)...

This leaves only 13 House seats such toss-ups that they can go either way (and, if you then- if only for the sake of the argument- do that ol' coin flip-as-chance thing and, in addition, give the Democrats the benefit of the doubt by giving that party 7 of these 13 to the GOP's 6, you actually end up with a quite possible result of the 5 November Elections re: the U.S. House of 230 Republicans, 204 Democrats plus their 1 allied "indy"...

All of which means that, should these numbers hold, it is the Republicans who will actually gain slightly in House seats in this year's General Election.

Between 23 to 28 October, the polls showed the following changes:

  • Connecticut CD 2: from Republican to toss-up.
  • Illinois CD 8: from Republican to Leaning Republican.
  • Louisiana CD 5: from Leaning Republican to Republican.
  • Missouri CD 5: from Democratic to Leaning Democratic.
  • New Mexico CD 1: from Republican to toss-up.
  • Utah CD 2: from toss-up to Leaning Democratic.

Our 23 October numbers were Republicans: 232, Democrats: 202, Independent: 1.

Below is a state by state digest of offices up for election 2 November 2004. Each line item shows the office and possible result.

  • Offices marked **WATCH** have close, interesting, or contradictory information being reported by the pollsters.
  • Offices marked **NO INCUMBENT** have no incumbent running in the upcoming election.
  • Offices marked **MULTIPLE INCUMBENTS** indicate that more than one incumbent is a candidate for the office.
  • Offices without a designation are likely to be won by the named candidate.


  • D: Democrat
  • LD: Leans Democrat
  • T: Toss-up
  • LR: Leans Republican
  • R: Republican
  • I: Independent
  • N: Nonpartisan
  • PNP: Partido Nuevo Progresista
  • PPD: Partido Popular Democratico

The state's electoral vote is shown in parenthesis.

There are 11 Governor's chairs, 34 Senate seats, and 435 House Seats up for election in 2004. It has been a good year for incumbents. During this primary season 4 incumbents lost their bids for renomination:

By the way, the only poll that matters is the one on 2 November 2004!

Information to build this list was obtained from the following sites (shown in alphabetical order). Updated 1 November 2004.



51 states2
(538 E.V.)
11 states2
(153 E.V.)

CA (55)
CT (7)
DE (3)
DC (3)
HI (4)
IL (21)
MD (10)
MA (12)
NY (31)
RI (4)
VT (3)
5 states2
(54 E.V.)

ME (4)
MI (17)
NJ (15)
OR (7)
WA (11)
11 states2
(123 E.V.)

CO (9)
FL (27)
IA (7)
MN (10)
NV (5)
NH (4)
NM (5)
OH (20)
PA (21)
WV (5)
WI (10)
5 states2
(55 E.V.)

AZ (10)
AR (6)
MO (11)
NC (15)
VA (13)
19 states2
(153 E.V.)

AL (9)
AK (3)
GA (15)
ID (4)
IN (11)
KS (6)
KY (8)
LA (9)
MS (6)
MT (3)
NE (5)
ND (3)
OK (7)
SC (8)
SD (3)
TN (11)
TX (34)
UT (5)
WY (3)
34 seats
13 seats
1 seat
8 seats
1 seat
11 seats
0 seats
435 seats
191 seats
6 seats
CA H20
GA H03
KS H03
OK H02
PA H13
UT H02
13 seats
CO H03
CT H02
GA H12
KY H04
LA H03
LA H07
NM H01
NY H27
TX H01
TX H02
TX H17
TX H32
WA H08
17 seats
AZ H01
CO H07
FL H05
GA H11
IL H08
IN H08
KY H03
MI H07
PA H06
PA H08
PA H15
TX H11
TX H19
TX H23
VA H02
WA H05
WV H02
207 seats
1 seat
11 chairs
1 chair
3 chairs
5 chairs
1 chair
1 chair
Other Statewide40050173
1. Others: I: Independent, N: Nonpartisan, PNP: Partido Nuevo Progresista, PPD: Partido Popular Democratico.
2. "States": the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.

State by State breakdown

PresidentR (9)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Richard Shelby
House 1RRepublican Congressman Jo Bonner
House 2RRepublican Congressman Terry Everett
House 3RRepublican Congressman Mike Rogers
House 4RRepublican Congressman Robert Aderholt
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Bud Cramer
House 6RRepublican Congressman Spencer Bachus
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Artur Davis

PresidentR (3)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3T**WATCH** Toss-up Former Governor Tony Knowles vs. Incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski
HouseRRepublican Congressman Don E. Young

American Samoa
Delegate to the House of RepresentativesDDemocratic Territorial Delegate Eni Faleomavaega

PresidentLR (10)**WATCH** leaning Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3RRepublican Senator John McCain
House 1LR**WATCH** leans Republican Congressman Rick Renzi
House 2RRepublican Congressman Trent Franks
House 3RRepublican Congressman John Shadegg
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Ed Pastor
House 5RRepublican Congressman J.D. Hayworth
House 6RRepublican Congressman Jeff Flake
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Raśl M. Grijalva
House 8RRepublican Congressman Jim Kolbe

PresidentLR (6)**WATCH** leans Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Marion Berry
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Vic Snyder
House 3RRepublican Congressman John Boozman
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Mike Ross

PresidentD (55)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Barbara Boxer
House 1DDemocratic Congressman C. Michael "Mike" Thompson
House 2RRepublican Congressman Wally Herger
House 3R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Daniel E. "Dan" Lungren
House 4RRepublican Congressman John T. Doolittle
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Robert T. Matsui
House 6DDemocratic Congressman Lynn Woolsey
House 7DDemocratic Congressman George Miller
House 8DDemocratic Congressman Nancy Pelosi
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Barbara Lee
House 10DDemocratic Congressman Ellen O. Tauscher
House 11RRepublican Congressman Richard W. Pombo
House 12DDemocratic Congressman Tom Lantos
House 13DDemocratic Congressman Fortney "Pete" Stark
House 14DDemocratic Congressman Anna G. Eshoo
House 15DDemocratic Congressman Michael M. "Mike" Honda
House 16DDemocratic Congressman Zoe Lofgren
House 17DDemocratic Congressman Sam Farr
House 18DDemocratic Congressman Dennis A. Cardoza
House 19RRepublican Congressman George P. Radanovich
House 20LD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Jim Costa
House 21RRepublican Congressman Devin Nunes
House 22RRepublican Congressman Bill Thomas
House 23DDemocratic Congressman Lois Capps
House 24RRepublican Congressman Elton Gallegly
House 25RRepublican Congressman Howard P. "Buck" McKeon
House 26RRepublican Congressman David Dreier
House 27DDemocratic Congressman Brad Sherman
House 28DDemocratic Congressman Howard L. Berman
House 29DDemocratic Congressman Adam B. Schiff
House 30DDemocratic Congressman Henry A. Waxman
House 31DDemocratic Congressman Xavier Becerra
House 32DDemocratic Congressman Hilda L. Solis
House 33DDemocratic Congressman Diane E. Watson
House 34DDemocratic Congressman Lucille Roybal-Allard
House 35DDemocratic Congressman Maxine Waters
House 36DDemocratic Congressman Jane Harman
House 37DDemocratic Congressman Juanita Millender-McDonald
House 38DDemocratic Congressman Grace Flores Napolitano
House 39DDemocratic Congressman Linda T. Sanchez
House 40RRepublican Congressman Edward R. Royce
House 41RRepublican Congressman Jerry Lewis
House 42RRepublican Congressman Gary G. Miller
House 43DDemocratic Congressman Joe Baca
House 44RRepublican Congressman Ken Calvert
House 45RRepublican Congressman Mary Bono
House 46RRepublican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher
House 47DDemocratic Congressman Loretta Sanchez
House 48RRepublican Congressman Christopher Cox
House 49RRepublican Congressman Darrell E. Issa
House 50RRepublican Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham
House 51DDemocratic Congressman Bob Filner
House 52RRepublican Congressman Duncan Hunter
House 53DDemocratic Congressman Susan A. Davis

PresidentT (9)**WATCH** Toss-up. It appears that Amendment 36, which would allocate Colorado's 9 electoral votes proportionately, will not pass.
Senate 3T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up: Democratic Ken Salazar vs. Republican Peter Coors
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Diana DeGette
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Mark Udall
House 3T**NO INCUMBENT** Leans Republican. Republican Greg E. Walcher vs. Democratic John T. Salazar
House 4RRepublican Congressman Marilyn Musgrave
House 5RRepublican Congressman Joel Hefley
House 6RRepublican Congressman Tom Tancredo
House 7LR**WATCH** Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez

PresidentD (7)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Christopher J. Dodd
House 1DDemocratic Congressman John B. Larson
House 2T**WATCH** Leans slightly Republican. Republican Congressman Rob Simmons vs. Democrat Jim Sullivan
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Rosa L. DeLauro
House 4RRepublican Congressman Christopher Shays
House 5RRepublican Congressman Nancy L. Johnson

PresidentD (3)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
GovernorDDemocratic Governor Ruth Ann Minner
Lieutenant GovernorDDemocratic Lieutenant Governor John C. Carney, Jr.
HouseRRepublican Congressman Michael N. Castle
Commissioner of InsuranceR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Daivd H. Ennis

District of Columbia
PresidentD (3)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Delegate to the House of RepresentativesDDemocratic Territorial Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton

PresidentT (27)**WATCH** Toss-up
Senate 3T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up Democratic Betty Castor vs. Republican Melquiades Rafael "Mel" Martinez
House 1RRepublican Congressman Jefferson B. "Jeff" Miller
House 2DDemocratic Congressman F. Allen Boyd, Jr.
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Corrine Brown
House 4RRepublican Congressman Ander Crenshaw
House 5LR**WATCH** Republican Congressman Virginia "Ginny" Brown-Waite
House 6RRepublican Congressman Clifford B. "Cliff" Stearns
House 7RRepublican Congressman John L. Mica
House 8RRepublican Congressman Richard Anthony "Ric" Keller
House 9RRepublican Congressman Michael Bilirakis
House 10RRepublican Congressman C.W. "Bill" Young
House 11DDemocratic Congressman Jim Davis
House 12RRepublican Congressman Adam H. Putnam
House 13RRepublican Congressman Katherine Harris
House 14R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Connie Mack, IV
House 15RRepublican Congressman David "Dave" Weldon
House 16RRepublican Congressman Mark A. Foley
House 17DDemocratic Congressman Kendrick B. Meek
House 18RRepublican Congressman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
House 19DDemocratic Congressman Robert Wexler
House 20D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Debbie Wasserman Schultz
House 21RRepublican Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart
House 22RRepublican Congressman Clay Shaw
House 23DDemocratic Congressman Alcee L. Hastings
House 24RRepublican Congressman Tom Feeney
House 25RRepublican Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart

PresidentR (15)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Johnny Isakson
House 1RRepublican Congressman Jack Kingston
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Sanford Dixon Bishop, Jr.
House 3LD**WATCH** Democratic Congressman Jim Marshall
House 4D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Cynthia A. McKinney
House 5DDemocratic Congressman John Lewis
House 6R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Thomas E. Price
House 7RRepublican Congressman John Linder
House 8R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Lynn Westmoreland
House 9RRepublican Congressman Charlie Norwood
House 10RRepublican Congressman Nathan Deal
House 11LR**WATCH** leans Republican. Incumbent Republican Congressman Phil Gingrey vs. Democratic Rick Crawford
House 12T**WATCH** Toss-up. Incumbent Republican Congressman Max Burns vs. Democratic John Barrow
House 13DDemocratic Congressman David Scott

Delegate to the House of RepresentativesDDemocratic Territorial Delegate Madeleine Bordallo

PresidentD (4)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Daniel K. Inouye
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Neil Abercrombie
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Ed Case

PresidentR (4)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Mike Crapo
House 1RRepublican Congressman C.L. "Butch" Otter
House 2RRepublican Congressman Michael K. "Mike" Simpson

PresidentD (21)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Barack Obama
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Bobby L. Rush
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Jesse L. Jackson, Jr.
House 3D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Dan Lipinski
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Luis V. Gutierrez
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Rahm Emanuel
House 6RRepublican Congressman Henry J. Hyde
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Danny K. Davis
House 8LR**WATCH** Leans Republican. Republican Congressman Philip M. Crane vs. Democrat Melissa Bean
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Janice D. Schakowsky
House 10RRepublican Congressman Mark Steven Kirk
House 11RRepublican Congressman Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller
House 12DDemocratic Congressman Jerry F. Costello
House 13RRepublican Congressman Judy Biggert
House 14RRepublican Congressman J. Dennis Hastert
House 15RRepublican Congressman Timothy V. "Tim" Johnson
House 16RRepublican Congressman Donald A. Manzullo
House 17DDemocratic Congressman Lane A. Evans
House 18RRepublican Congressman Ray LaHood
House 19RRepublican Congressman John M. Shimkus

PresidentR (11)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Evan Bayh
GovernorT**WATCH** Toss-up: Incumbent Democratic Governor Joseph E. "Joe" Kernan vs. Republican Mitchell E. "Mitch" Daniels, Jr.
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Peter J. Visclosky
House 2RRepublican Congressman Chris Chocola
House 3RRepublican Congressman Mark Souder
House 4RRepublican Congressman Steve Buyer
House 5RRepublican Congressman Dan Burton
House 6RRepublican Congressman Mike Pence
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Julia M. Carson
House 8LR**WATCH** Republican Congressman John N. Hostettler
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Baron P. Hill
Attorney GeneralRRepublican Attorney General Steve Carter
Superintendent of Public InstructionRRepublican Public Instruction Superintendent Suellen Reed

PresidentT (7)**WATCH** Toss-up.
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Charles "Chuck" Grassley
House 1RRepublican Congressman Jim Nussle
House 2RRepublican Congressman James A. "Jim" Leach
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Leonard L. Boswell
House 4RRepublican Congressman Tom Latham
House 5RRepublican Congressman Steve King

PresidentR (6)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Samuel D. Brownback
House 1RRepublican Congressman Jerry Moran
House 2RRepublican Congressman Jim Ryun
House 3LD**WATCH** Leans Democrat. Incumbert Democratic Congressman Dennis Moore vs. Republican Kris Kobach
House 4RRepublican Congressman Todd Tiahrt

PresidentR (8)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3T**WATCH** Leans to Republican Senator Jim Bunning
House 1RRepublican Congressman Edward Whitfield
House 2RRepublican Congressman Ron Lewis
House 3LR**WATCH** Republican Congressman Anne Meagher Northup
House 4T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up. Democratic Nick Clooney vs. Republican Geoff Davis
House 5RRepublican Congressman Harold "Hal" Rogers
House 6DDemocratic Congressman A.B. "Ben" Chandler, III

PresidentR (9)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3T**NO INCUMBENT** Runoff possible. Should no candidate receive 50% on 2 November, the two top vote-getters will participate in a Saturday 4 December runoff. Polls: Repuplican David Vitter (47%), Democratic Christopher John (21%), Democratic John N. Kennedy (15%)
House 1R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Piyush "Bobby" Jindal
House 2DDemocratic Congressman William J. "Bill" Jefferson
House 3T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up. Leans slightly Republican
House 4RRepublican Congressman "Jim" McCrery
House 5RRepublican Congressman Rodney Alexander
House 6RRepublican Congressman Richard H. Baker
House 7T**NO INCUMBENT** Leans Democrat

PresidentLD (4)**WATCH** Leaning Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Thomas H. Allen
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Michael H. Michaud

PresidentD (10)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Barbara A. Mikulski
House 1RRepublican Congressman Wayne T. Gilchrest
House 2DDemocratic Congressman C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Benjamin L. Cardin
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Albert R. Wynn
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Steny H. Hoyer
House 6RRepublican Congressman Roscoe G. Bartlett
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Elijah E. Cummings
House 8DDemocratic Congressman Christopher Van Hollen, Jr.

PresidentD (12)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
House 1DDemocratic Congressman John W. Olver
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Richard E. Neal
House 3DDemocratic Congressman James P. McGovern
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Barney Frank
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Martin T. Meehan
House 6DDemocratic Congressman John F. Tierney
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Edward J. Markey
House 8DDemocratic Congressman Michael E. Capuano
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Stephen F. Lynch
House 10DDemocratic Congressman William D. Delahunt

PresidentLD (17)**WATCH** Leans Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Bart Stupak
House 2RRepublican Congressman Peter Hoekstra
House 3RRepublican Congressman Vernon J. Ehlers
House 4RRepublican Congressman Dave Camp
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Dale E. Kildee
House 6RRepublican Congressman Fred Upton
House 7LR**NO INCUMBENT** Leaning Republican John "Joe" Schwarz
House 8RRepublican Congressman Mike Rogers
House 9RRepublican Congressman Joe Knollenberg
House 10RRepublican Congressman Candice S. Miller
House 11RRepublican Congressman Thaddeus G. McCotter
House 12DDemocratic Congressman Sander Levin
House 13DDemocratic Congressman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
House 14DDemocratic Congressman John Conyers, Jr.
House 15DDemocratic Congressman John D. Dingell

PresidentT (10)**WATCH** Toss-up.
House 1RRepublican Congressman Gil Gutknecht
House 2RRepublican Congressman John Kline
House 3RRepublican Congressman Jim Ramstad
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Betty McCollum
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Martin Olav Sabo
House 6RRepublican Congressman Mark R. Kennedy
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Collin C. Peterson
House 8DDemocratic Congressman James L. Oberstar

PresidentR (6)Republican President George W. Bush
House 1RRepublican Congressman Roger F. Wicker
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Bennie G. Thompson
House 3RRepublican Congressman Charles W. "Chip" Pickering, Jr.
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Gene Taylor

PresidentLR (11)**WATCH** Leans Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Christopher "Kit" Bond
GovernorT**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up: Democratic Auditor Claire McCaskill vs. Republican Secretary of State Matt Blunt
Lieutenant GovernorR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Peter Kinder
House 1DDemocratic Congressman William Lacy Clay, Jr.
House 2RRepublican Congressman Todd Akin
House 3D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Russ Carnahan
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Ike Skelton
House 5D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Emanuel Cleaver, II
House 6RRepublican Congressman Samuel B. "Sam" Graves, Jr.
House 7RRepublican Congressman Roy Blunt
House 8RRepublican Congressman Jo Ann Emerson
House 9RRepublican Congressman Kenny C. Hulshof
Secretary of StateD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Robin Carnahan
Attorney GeneralDDemocratic Attorney General Jeremiah W. "Jay" Nixon
TreasurerD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Mark Powell

PresidentR (3)Republican President George W. Bush
GovernorT**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up to Leaning Democratic: Democratic Brian Schweitzer vs. Republican Secretary of State Bob Brown
HouseRRepublican Congressman Dennis "Denny" Rehberg
Secretary of StateD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Bill Kennedy
Attorney GeneralDDemocratic Attorney General Mike McGrath
AuditorDDemocratic Auditor John Morrison
Superintendent of Public InstructionDDemocratic Public Instruction Superintendent Linda H. McCulloch

PresidentR (5)Republican President George W. Bush
House 1R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Jeff Fortenberry
House 2RRepublican Congressman Lee Terry
House 3RRepublican Congressman Tom Osborne

PresidentT (5)**WATCH** Toss-up but leaning towards to Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Harry Reid
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Shelley Berkley
House 2RRepublican Congressman Jim Gibbons
House 3RRepublican Congressman Jon Porter

New Hampshire
PresidentT (4)**WATCH** Toss-up:
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Judd Gregg
GovernorT**WATCH** Toss-up but possibly leaning Republican: Republican Governor Craig R. Benson vs. Democrat John Lynch
House 1RRepublican Congressman Jeb Bradley
House 2RRepublican Congressman Charles Bass

New Jersey
PresidentLD (15)**WATCH** Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Robert E. Andrews
House 2RRepublican Congressman Frank A. LoBiondo
House 3RRepublican Congressman Jim Saxton
House 4RRepublican Congressman Christopher H. Smith
House 5RRepublican Congressman Scott Garrett
House 6DDemocratic Congressman Frank Pallone, Jr.
House 7RRepublican Congressman Mike Ferguson
House 8DDemocratic Congressman Bill Pascrell, Jr.
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Steven R. Rothman
House 10DDemocratic Congressman Donald M. Payne
House 11RRepublican Congressman Rodney P. Frelinghuysen
House 12DDemocratic Congressman Rush Holt
House 13DDemocratic Congressman Robert Menendez

New Mexico
PresidentT (5)**WATCH** Toss-up
House 1T**WATCH** Leans slightly Republican. Republican Congressman Heather A. Wilson vs. Democrat Richard M. Romero
House 2RRepublican Congressman Steve Pearce
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Tom Udall

New York
PresidentD (31)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Chuck E. Schumer
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Timothy H. "Tim" Bishop
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Steve J. Israel
House 3RRepublican Congressman Peter T. King
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Carolyn McCarthy
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Gary L. Ackerman
House 6DDemocratic Congressman Gregory W. Meeks
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Joseph Crowley
House 8DDemocratic Congressman Jerrold L. Nadler
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Anthony D. Weiner
House 10DDemocratic Congressman Edolphus "Ed" Towns
House 11DDemocratic Congressman Major R. Owens
House 12DDemocratic Congressman Nydia M. Velazquez
House 13RRepublican Congressman Vito J. Fossella
House 14DDemocratic Congressman Carolyn B. Maloney
House 15DDemocratic Congressman Charles B. Rangel
House 16DDemocratic Congressman Jose E. Serrano
House 17DDemocratic Congressman Eliot L. Engel
House 18DDemocratic Congressman Nita M. Lowey
House 19RRepublican Congressman Sue W. Kelly
House 20RRepublican Congressman John E. Sweeney
House 21DDemocratic Congressman Michael R. McNulty
House 22DDemocratic Congressman Maurice D. Hinchey
House 23RRepublican Congressman John M. McHugh
House 24RRepublican Congressman Sherwood L. "Sherry" Boehlert
House 25RRepublican Congressman James T. Walsh
House 26RRepublican Congressman Thomas M. Reynolds
House 27T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up: Democratic Brian M. Higgins vs. Republican Nancy A. Naples
House 28DDemocratic Congressman Louise McIntosh Slaughter
House 29R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican State Senator John "Randy" Kuhl

North Carolina
PresidentLR (15)**WATCH** Leans Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up: Democratic Erskine B. Bowles vs. Republican Congressman Richard M. Burr
GovernorLDDemocratic Governor Mike Easley
Lieutenant GovernorDDemocratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Eaves Perdue
House 1DDemocratic Congressman G. K. Butterfield
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Bob Etheridge
House 3RRepublican Congressman Walter B. Jones, Jr.
House 4DDemocratic Congressman David Price
House 5R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Virginia Foxx
House 6RRepublican Congressman Howard Coble
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Mike McIntyre
House 8RRepublican Congressman Robert C. "Robin" Hayes
House 9RRepublican Congressman Sue Myrick
House 10R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Patrick T. McHenry
House 11RRepublican Congressman Charles H. Taylor
House 12DDemocratic Congressman Mel Watt
House 13DDemocratic Congressman Brad Miller
Secretary of StateDDemocratic Secretary of State Elaine F. Marshall
Attorney GeneralDDemocratic Attorney General Roy Cooper
TreasurerDDemocratic Treasurer Richard Hancock Moore
AuditorDDemocratic Auditor Ralph Campbell, Jr.
Commissioner of AgricultureR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Steve Troxler
Commissioner of InsuranceDDemocratic Insurance Commissioner Jim Long
Commissioner of LaborRRepublican Labor Commissioner Cherie Killian Berry
Superintendent of Public InstructionD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic June S. Atkinson

North Dakota
PresidentR (3)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Byron L. Dorgan
GovernorR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Governor John Hoeven
HouseDDemocratic Congressman Earl Pomeroy
Secretary of StateRRepublican Secretary of State Alvin A. "Al" Jaeger
Attorney GeneralRRepublican Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem
TreasurerD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Dean Meyer
AuditorRRepublican Auditor Robert "Bob" Peterson
Commissioner of AgricultureDDemocratic Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson
Tax CommissionerRRepublican Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh
Commissioner of InsuranceRRepublican Insurance Commissioner Jim Poolman
Superintendent of Public InstructionNNonpartisan Public Instruction Superintendent Wayne G. Sanstead
Public Service Commissioner 1T**NO INCUMBENT** (no polling data)

Northern Marianas

PresidentT (20)**WATCH** Toss-up
Senate 3RRepublican U.S. Senator George V. Voinovich
House 1RRepublican Congressman Steve Chabot
House 2RRepublican Congressman Rob Portman
House 3RRepublican Congressman Michael R. Turner
House 4RRepublican Congressman Michael G. Oxley
House 5RRepublican Congressman Paul E. Gillmor
House 6DDemocratic Congressman Ted Strickland
House 7RRepublican Congressman Dave Hobson
House 8RRepublican Congressman John A. Boehner
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Marcy Kaptur
House 10DDemocratic Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich
House 11DDemocratic Congressman Stephanie Tubbs Jones
House 12RRepublican Congressman Pat Tiberi
House 13DDemocratic Congressman Sherrod Brown
House 14RRepublican Congressman Steven C. LaTourette
House 15RRepublican Congressman Deborah Pryce
House 16RRepublican Congressman Ralph Regula
House 17DDemocratic Congressman Timothy J. Ryan
House 18RRepublican Congressman Bob Ney

PresidentR (7)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up: Democratic Congressman Brad Carson vs. former Republican Congressman Tom Coburn
House 1RRepublican Congressman John Sullivan
House 2LD**NO INCUMBENT** Leans Democratic Dan Boren
House 3RRepublican Congressman Frank D. Lucas
House 4RRepublican Congressman Tom Cole
House 5RRepublican Congressman Ernest Istook
Corporation Commissioner 1RRepublican Corporation Commissioner Denise A. Bode

PresidentLD (7)**WATCH** Leans Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Ron Wyden
House 1DDemocratic Congressman David Wu
House 2RRepublican Congressman Gregory Paul Walden
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Earl Blumenauer
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Peter A. Defazio
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Darlene Hooley
Secretary of StateDDemocratic Secretary of State Bill Bradbury
Attorney GeneralDDemocratic Hardy Myers
TreasurerDDemocratic Randall Edwards

PresidentT (21)**WATCH** Leans slighly to Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Arlen Specter
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Robert A. Brady
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Chaka Fattah
House 3RRepublican Congressman Phil English
House 4RRepublican Congressman Melissa Hart
House 5RRepublican Congressman John E. Peterson
House 6LR**WATCH** Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach
House 7RRepublican Congressman Curt Weldon
House 8LR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Michael G. "Mike" Fitzpatrick
House 9RRepublican Congressman Bill Shuster
House 10RRepublican Congressman Don Sherwood
House 11DDemocratic Congressman Paul E. Kanjorski
House 12DDemocratic Congressman John P. Murtha
House 13LD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Allyson Schwartz
House 14DDemocratic Congressman Mike Doyle
House 15LR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Charles W. Dent
House 16RRepublican Congressman Joseph R. Pitts
House 17DDemocratic Congressman Tim Holden
House 18RRepublican Congressman Tim Murphy
House 19RRepublican Congressman Todd Platts
Attorney GeneralR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Tom Corbett
TreasurerD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Robert P. "Bob" Casey, Jr.
Auditor GeneralD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Jack Wagner

Puerto Rico
Territorial GovernorPNP**NO INCUMBENT** Partido Nuevo Progresista Pedro Rossello
Delegate to the House of RepresentativesPPD**NO INCUMBENT** Partido Popular Democratico Roberto Prats

Rhode Island
PresidentD (4)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Patrick J. Kennedy
House 2DDemocratic Congressman James R. Langevin

South Carolina
PresidentR (8)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3LR**NO INCUMBENT** Leans to Republican Congressman Jim DeMint
House 1RRepublican Congressman Henry E. Brown
House 2RRepublican Congressman A. G. "Joe" Wilson
House 3RRepublican Congressman J. Gresham Barrett
House 4R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Bob Inglis
House 5DDemocratic Congressman John Spratt
House 6DDemocratic Congressman James E. "Jim" Clyburn

South Dakota
PresidentR (3)Republican President George W. Bush
Senate 3T**WATCH** Slightly leans Democrat. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Daschle vs. Republican John R. Thune
HouseDDemocratic Congressman Stephanie Herseth

PresidentR (11)Republican President George W. Bush
House 1RRepublican Congressman William L. "Bill" Jenkins
House 2RRepublican Congressman John J. Duncan, Jr.
House 3RRepublican Congressman Zach Wamp
House 4DDemocratic Congressman Lincoln Davis
House 5DDemocratic Congressman Jim Cooper
House 6DDemocratic Congressman Bart Gordon
House 7RRepublican Congressman Marsha Blackburn
House 8DDemocratic Congressman John S. Tanner
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Harold E. Ford, Jr.

PresidentR (34)Republican President George W. Bush
House 1T**WATCH** Toss-up: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Max Sandlin vs. Republican Louis Gohmert
House 2T**WATCH** Toss-up: Democratic Congressman Nicholas "Nick" Lampson (incumbent CD 8) vs. Republican Ted Poe
House 3RRepublican Congressman Sam Johnson
House 4RRepublican Congressman Ralph Hall
House 5RRepublican Congressman Jeb Hensarling
House 6RRepublican Congressman Joe Barton
House 7RRepublican Congressman John Culberson
House 8RRepublican Congressman Kevin Brady
House 9D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Al Green
House 10R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Michael T. McCaul
House 11LR**NO INCUMBENT** Leans Republican Mike Conaway
House 12RRepublican Congressman Kay Granger
House 13RRepublican Congressman Mac Thornberry
House 14RRepublican Congressman Ron Paul
House 15DDemocratic Congressman Ruben Hinojosa
House 16DDemocratic Congressman Silvestre Reyes
House 17T**WATCH** Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards (incumbent CD 11) vs. Republican Arlene Wohlgemuth
House 18DDemocratic Congressman Sheila Jackson Lee
House 19LR**MULTIPLE INCUMBENTS** Leans Republican: Republican Congressman Randy Neugebauer (incumbent CD 19) vs. Democratic Congressman Charles W. "Charlie" Stenholm (incumbent CD 17)
House 20DDemocratic Congressman Charles A. Gonzalez
House 21RRepublican Congressman Lamar Smith
House 22RRepublican Congressman Tom DeLay
House 23LR**WATCH** Republican Congressman Henry Bonilla
House 24R**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Kenny Marchant
House 25DDemocratic Congressman Lloyd Doggett (incumbent CD 10)
House 26RRepublican Congressman Michael C. Burgess
House 27DDemocratic Congressman Solomon P. Ortiz
House 28D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Henry Cuellar
House 29DDemocratic Congressman Gene Green
House 30DDemocratic Congressman Eddie Bernice Johnson
House 31RRepublican Congressman John R. Carter
House 32T**MULTIPLE INCUMBENTS** Democratic Congressman Martin Frost (incumbent CD 24) vs. Republican Congressman Pete Sessions (incumbent CD 32)
Railroad Commissioner 1RRepublican Railroad Commissioner (Chairman) Victor G. Carrillo

PresidentR (5)Republican President George W. Bush
GovernorT**NO INCUMBENT** Leans slightly to Republican Jon M. Huntsman, Jr.
Senate 3RRepublican Senator Robert F. Bennett
House 1RRepublican Congressman Rob Bishop
House 2LD**WATCH** Leans Incumbent Democratic Congressman Jim Matheson
House 3RRepublican Congressman Chris Cannon
Attorney GeneralRRepublican Attorney General Mark Shurtleff
TreasurerRRepublican Treasurer Edward T. "Ed" Alter
AuditorRRepublican Auditor Auston G. Johnson

PresidentD (3)Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Patrick Leahy
GovernorLR**WATCH** Leans Republican Governor James H. "Jim" Douglas
Lieutenant GovernorTRepublican Lieutenant Governor Brian E. Dubie
HouseIIndependent Congressman Bernie Sanders
Secretary of StateDDemocratic Secretary of State Deborah L. "Deb" Markowitz
Attorney GeneralDDemocratic Attorney General William H. "Bill" Sorrell
TreasurerDDemocratic Treasurer Jeb Spaulding
Auditor of AccountsDDemocratic Auditor of Accounts Elizabeth M. Ready

Virgin Islands
Delegate to the House of RepresentativesDDemocratic Territorial Delegate Donna M. Christensen

PresidentLR (13)**WATCH** Republican President George W. Bush
House 1RRepublican Congressman Jo Ann S. Davis
House 2LR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Thelma D. Drake
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Robert C. "Bobby" Scott
House 4RRepublican Congressman J. Randy Forbes
House 5RRepublican Congressman Virgil H. Goode, Jr.
House 6RRepublican Congressman Robert W. "Bob" Goodlatte
House 7RRepublican Congressman Eric I. Cantor
House 8DDemocratic Congressman James P. "Jim" Moran, Jr.
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Frederick C. "Rick" Boucher
House 10RRepublican Congressman Frank R. Wolf
House 11RRepublican Congressman Thomas M. Davis, III

PresidentLD (11)**WATCH** Leans Democratic Senator John F. Kerry
GovernorLD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Attorney General Christine Gregoire
Lieutenant GovernorDDemocratic Lieutenant Governor Brad Owen
Senate 3DDemocratic Senator Patty Murray
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Jay Inslee
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Rick Larsen
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Brian Baird
House 4RRepublican Congressman Doc Hastings
House 5LR**NO INCUMBENT** Republican Cathy McMorris
House 6DDemocratic Congressman Norm Dicks
House 7DDemocratic Congressman Jim McDermott
House 8T**NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up: Democratic Dave Ross vs. Republican Dave Reichert
House 9DDemocratic Congressman Adam Smith
Secretary of StateRRepublican Secretary of State Sam Reed
Attorney GeneralD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Deborah Senn
TreasurerDDemocratic Treasurer Michael J. "Mike" Murphy
AuditorDDemocratic Auditor Brian Sonntag
Commissioner of Public LandsT**WATCH** (no polling data)
Insurance CommissionerDDemocratic Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler
Superintendent of Public InstructionT**WATCH** (no polling data)

West Virginia
PresidentT (5)**WATCH** Toss-up but leaning towards Republican President George W. Bush
GovernorLD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Secretary of State Joe Manchin, III
House 1DDemocratic Congressman Alan B. Mollohan
House 2LR**WATCH** Republican Congressman Shelley Moore Capito
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Nick Joe Rahall, II
Secretary of StateD**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Ken Hechler
Attorney GeneralDDemocratic Attorney General Darrell McGraw
TreasurerDDemocratic Treasurer John D. Perdue
AuditorDDemocratic Auditor Glen B. Gainer, III
Commissioner of AgricultureDDemocratic Agriculture Commissioner Gus R. Douglass

PresidentT (10)**WATCH** Toss-up
Senate 3LD**WATCH** Democratic Senator Russ Feingold
House 1RRepublican Congressman Paul D. Ryan
House 2DDemocratic Congressman Tammy Baldwin
House 3DDemocratic Congressman Ron Kind
House 4D**NO INCUMBENT** Democratic Gwendolynne "Gwen" Moore
House 5RRepublican Congressman F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr.
House 6RRepublican Congressman Thomas E. "Tom" Petri
House 7DDemocratic Congressman David R. Obey
House 8RRepublican Congressman Mark Green

PresidentR (3)Republican President George W. Bush
HouseRRepublican Congressman Barbara Cubin

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