[Last update 2002nov04]
Outlook for the U.S. Senate in the 5 November Election (as of 25 October 2002):
for the Democrats: 36 Senate seats are not up for election in
of the 34 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2002:
of these 15 "in play", 4 clearly lean Democratic (giving the Democrats 47), while 5 clearly lean Republican (giving the GOP side of the Senate aisle 46)... neither Party, thus, has control of the Senate going by this total of 94 certain/likely seats alone...
this leaves 6 Senate seats with toss-ups that can go either way (and, if you then- if only for the sake of the argument- do that ol' coin flip-as-chance thing and split these 6 between the Parties, you actually end up with a quite possible result of the 5 November elections re: the U.S. Senate of 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent...
all of which means that, should these numbers hold, there will be NO CHANGE (Democrats in nominal functional control of the Senate) as a result of this year's Midterm Election... with TWO important caveats!:
1. IF (and only if) Republican Jim Talent defeats incumbent Democrat Jean Carnahan in the Special Election for the "Class 1" seat from MISSOURI, Mr. Talent would take office as soon as would be practicable after the 5 November 2002 Election and not have to wait for Noon on 3 January 2003 to take office as will any new "freshman" Senators elected to "Class 2" seats on 5 November... and, IF there is- indeed- otherwise NO CHANGE in the overall composition of the Senate as a result of the 5 November election returns... THEN the Republicans would, technically, control the Senate for two months with 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 1 Independent!
BUT (and it's in boldface precisely because it's a BIG "but")
2. IF no candidate wins at least 50% of the vote in the 5 November election for the "Class 2" seat from LOUISIANA currently occupied by incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu (who is a candidate for re-election), there will have to be a Runoff between the two top vote-getters... and IF one of the two top vote-getters is, indeed, Ms. Landrieu... THEN (assuming that there is, indeed, otherwise NO CHANGE in the Party breakdown in the Senate from the current situation) the the incoming Senate would then be 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent, awaiting the results in early December to determine which Party controls the Senate in the new Congress...
could remind people a lot (albeit for different reasons, of course) of waiting for a final outcome re: the Presidential Election in Florida two years earlier!... STAY TUNED!!
Outlook for the House of Representatives in the 5 November Election (as of 25 October 2002):
for the Democrats: 199 House seats certain or reasonably certain
(not including the 1 sure Independent from VERMONT who tends to vote
with the Democrats)
of these 24 "in play", 5 clearly lean Democratic (giving the Democrats 204 along with the 1 "indy") while 8 clearly lean Republican (giving the GOP side of the House aisle 219 and, thereby, retention of control of the House)...
this leaves only 11 House seats such toss-ups that they can go either way (and, if you then- if only for the sake of the argument- do that ol' coin flip-as-chance thing and, in addition, give the Democrats the benefit of the doubt by giving that Party 6 of these 11 to the GOP's 5, you actually end up with a quite possible result of the 5 November Elections re: the U.S. House of 224 Republicans, 210 Democrats plus their 1 allied "indy"...
all of which means that, should these numbers hold, it is the Republicans who will actually gain slightly in House seats in this year's Midterm Election!
Below is a state by state digest of offices up for election November 5, 2002. Each office shows the party and candidate.
During this primary season, 8 incumbent Congressmen and 1 incumbent Senator lost their bids for renomination. There are 435 House Seats and 34 Senate seats up for election. It has been a good year for incumbents.
By the way, the only poll that matters is the one on 5 November 2002!
Information to build this list was obtained from the following sites (shown in alphabetical order). You will find polling data on these sites:
Coding used in this table:
AlabamaG **WATCH** Tossup: Democrat Governor Don Siegelman vs Republican Congressman Bob Riley S2 Republican Senator Jeff Sessions H01 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Jo Bonner H02 Republican Congressman Terry Everett H03 **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Democrat Joe Turnham vs Republican Mike Rogers H04 Republican Congressman Robert Aderholt H05 Democrat Congressman Bud Cramer H06 Republican Congressman Spencer Bachus H07 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Artur Earl Davis
AlaskaG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Senator Frank H. Murkowski vs Democrat Lt Governor Fran Ulmer S2 Republican Senator Ted Stevens H Republican Congressman Don E. Young
ArizonaG **NO INCUMBENT** Very slight advantage Democrat Janet Napolitano vs Republican Matt Salmon H01 **NO INCUMBENT** Very slight advantage Republican Rick Renzi Democrat George Cardovavs H02 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Trent Franks H03 Republican Congressman John Shadegg H04 Democrat Congressman Ed Pastor H05 Republican Congressman J.D. Hayworth H06 Republican Congressman Jeff Flake H07 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Raul M. Grijalva H08 Republican Congressman Jim Kolbe
ArkansasG Republican Governor Mike Huckabee S2 **WATCH** Tossup: Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson vs Democrat Atty General Mark Pryor H01 Democrat Congressman Marion Berry H02 Democrat Congressman Vic Snyder H03 Republican Congressman John Boozman H04 Democrat Congressman Mike Ross
CaliforniaG Democrat Governor Gray Davis H01 Democrat Congressman Mike Thompson H02 Republican Congressman Wally Herger H03 Republican Congressman Doug Ose H04 Republican Congressman John T. Doolittle H05 Democrat Congressman Robert T. Matsui H06 Democrat Congressman Lynn Woolsey H07 Democrat Congressman George Miller H08 Democrat Congressman Nancy Pelosi H09 Democrat Congressman Barbara Lee H10 Democrat Congressman Ellen O. Tauscher H11 Republican Congressman Richard W. Pombo H12 Democrat Congressman Tom Lantos H13 Democrat Congressman Fortney "Pete" Stark H14 Democrat Congressman Anna G. Eshoo H15 Democrat Congressman Michael M. Honda H16 Democrat Congressman Zoe Lofgren H17 Democrat Congressman Sam Farr H18 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Dennis A. Cardoza H19 Republican Congressman George P. Radanovich H20 Democrat Congressman Calvin Dooley H21 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Devin Nunes H22 Republican Congressman Bill Thomas H23 Democrat Congressman Lois Capps H24 Republican Congressman Elton Gallegly H25 Republican Congressman Howard P. "Buck" McKeon H26 Republican Congressman David Dreier H27 Democrat Congressman Brad Sherman H28 Democrat Congressman Howard L. Berman H29 Democrat Congressman Adam B. Schiff H30 Democrat Congressman Henry A. Waxman H31 Democrat Congressman Xavier Becerra H32 Democrat Congressman Hilda L. Solis H33 Democrat Congressman Diane E. Watson H34 Democrat Congressman Lucille Roybal-Allard H35 Democrat Congressman Maxine Waters H36 Democrat Congressman Jane Harman H37 Democrat Congressman Juanita Millender-McDonald H38 Democrat Congressman Grace Flores Napolitano H39 **NO INCUMBENT** Linda T. Sanchez H40 Republican Congressman Edward R. Royce H41 Republican Congressman Jerry Lewis H42 Republican Congressman Gary G. Miller H43 Democrat Congressman Joe Baca H44 Republican Congressman Ken Calvert H45 Republican Congressman Mary Bono H46 Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher H47 Democrat Congressman Loretta Sanchez H48 Republican Congressman Christopher Cox H49 Republican Congressman Darrell Issa H50 Republican Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham H51 Democrat Congressman Bob Filner H52 Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter H53 Democrat Congressman Susan A. Davis
ColoradoG Republican Governor Bill Owens S2 **WATCH** Tossup: Republican Senator Wayne Allard vs Democrat Tom Strickland H01 Democrat Congressman Diana DeGette H02 Democrat Congressman Mark Udall H03 Republican Congressman Scott McInnis H04 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Marilyn Musgrave H05 Republican Congressman Joel Hefley H06 Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo H07 **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Republican Bob Beauprez vs Democrat Mike Freeley
ConnecticutG Republican Governor John G. Rowland H01 Democrat Congressman John B. Larson H02 **WATCH** Advantage Republican Congressman Rob Simmons vs Democrat Joe Courtney H03 Democrat Congressman Rosa L. DeLauro H04 Republican Congressman Christopher Shays H05 **MULTIPLE** Advantage Republican Congressman Nancy L. Johnson vs Democrat Congressman James Maloney
DelawareS2 Democrat Senator Joseph R. Biden, Jr. H Republican Congressman Michael N. Castle
District of ColumbiaMayor Democrat Anthony "Tony" Williams Delegate to Congress Democrat Eleanor Holmes Norton
FloridaG **WATCH** Slight advantage Republican Governor John Ellis "Jeb" Bush vs Democrat Bill McBride H01 Republican Congressman Jeff Miller H02 Democrat Congressman F. Allen Boyd, Jr. H03 Democrat Congressman Corrine Brown H04 Republican Congressman Ander Crenshaw H05 **WATCH** Advantage Democrat Congressman Karen L. Thurman vs Republican Virginia Brown-Waite H06 Republican Congressman Clifford B. Stearns H07 Republican Congressman John L. Mica H08 Republican Congressman Richard Anthony "Ric" Keller H09 Republican Congressman Michael Bilirakis H10 Republican Congressman C. W. "Bill" Young H11 Democrat Congressman Jim Davis H12 Republican Congressman Adam H. Putnam H13 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Kartherine Harris H14 Republican Congressman Porter Johnston Goss H15 Republican Congressman David Weldon H16 Republican Congressman Mark A. Foley H17 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Kendrick B. Meek H18 Republican Congressman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen H19 Democrat Congressman Robert Wexler H20 Democrat Congressman Peter R. Deutsch H21 Republican Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart H22 Republican Congressman Clay Shaw H23 Democrat Congressman Alcee L. Hastings H24 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Tom Feeney H25 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Mario Diaz-Balart
GeorgiaG Democrat Governor Roy E. Barnes S2 Advantage Democrat Senator Max Cleland vs Republican Congressman Saxby Chambliss H01 Republican Congressman Jack Kingston H02 Democrat Congressman Sanford Dixon Bishop, Jr. H03 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Jim Marshall H04 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Denise Majette H05 Democrat Congressman John Lewis H06 Republican Congressman Johnny Isakson H07 Republican Congressman John Linder H08 Republican Congressman Michael A. "Mac" Collins H09 Republican Congressman Charlie Norwood H10 Republican Congressman Nathan Deal H11 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Roger Kahn H12 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Charles "Champ" Walker, Jr. H13 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat David Scott
HawaiiG **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Republican Linda Lingle vs Democrat Mazie Hirono H01 Democrat Congressman Neil Abercrombie H02 **WATCH** deceased Democrat Congressman Patsy Takemoto Mink is expected to win. There will be a 30 November election to fill her vacancy in the 107th Congress and a 4 January election to fill her vacancy in the 108th Congress.
IdahoG Republican Governor Dirk Kempthorne S2 Republican Senator Larry E. Craig H01 Republican Congressman C.L. "Butch" Otter H02 Republican Congressman Michael K. "Mike" Simpson
IllinoisG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Congressman Rod R. Blagojevich vs Republican Jim Ryan S2 Democrat Senator Richard J. Durbin H01 Democrat Congressman Bobby L. Rush H02 Democrat Congressman Jesse L. Jackson, Jr. H03 Democrat Congressman William O. Lipinski H04 Democrat Congressman Luis V. Gutierrez H05 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Rahm Emanuel H06 Republican Congressman Henry J. Hyde H07 Democrat Congressman Danny K. Davis H08 Republican Congressman Philip M. Crane H09 Democrat Congressman Janice D. Schakowsky H10 Republican Congressman Mark Steven Kirk H11 Republican Congressman Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller H12 Democrat Congressman Jerry F. Costello H13 Republican Congressman Judy Biggert H14 Republican Congressman J. Dennis Hastert H15 Republican Congressman Timothy V. Johnson H16 Republican Congressman Donald A. Manzullo H17 Democrat Congressman Lane A. Evans H18 Republican Congressman Ray LaHood H19 **MULTIPLE** Tossup: Democrat Congressman David Phelps vs Republican Congressman John M. Shimkus
IndianaH01 Democrat Congressman Peter J. Visclosky H02 **OPEN** Tossup: Democrat Jill Long Thompson vs Republican Chris Chocola H03 Republican Congressman Mark E. Souder H04 Republican Congressman Steve Buyer H05 Republican Congressman Dan Burton H06 Republican Congressman Mike Pence H07 Democrat Congressman Julia M. Carson H08 Republican Congressman John N. Hostettler H09 Democrat Congressman Baron P. Hill
IowaG **WATCH** Advantage Democrat Governor Tom Vilsack vs Democrat Doug Gross S2 Advantage Democrat Senator Tom Harkin vs Republican Congressman Greg Granske H01 Republican Congressman Jim Nussle H02 Advantage Republican Congressman Jim Leach vs Democrat Jim Leach H03 **WATCH** Advantage Democrat Congressman Leonard L. Boswell vs Republican Stan Thompson H04 Republican Congressman Tom Latham H05 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Steve King
KansasG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Kathleen Sebelius vs Republican Tim Shallenburger S2 Republican Senator Pat Roberts H01 Republican Congressman Jerry Moran H02 Republican Congressman Jim Ryun H03 **WATCH** Advantage Democrat Congressman Dennis Moore vs Republican Adam Taff H04 Republican Congressman Todd Tiahrt
KentuckyS2 Republican Senator Mitch McConnell H01 Republican Congressman Edward Whitfield H02 Republican Congressman Ron Lewis H03 **WATCH** Advantage Republican Congressman Anne M. Northup vs Democrat Jack Conway H04 Democrat Congressman Ken Lucas H05 Republican Congressman Harold "Hal" Rogers H06 Republican Congressman Ernie Fletcher
LouisianaS2 **WATCH** Plan for 7 December runoff as polls show no candidate is likely to receive 50% of the vote. Advantage Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu H01 Republican Congressman David Vitter H02 Democrat Congressman William J. "Bill" Jefferson H03 Republican Congressman W.J. "Billy" Tauzin H04 Republican Congressman "Jim" McCrery H05 **NO INCUMBENT** 7 December runoff if no candidate receives 50% of the vote. Leaders: Republican Clyde C. Holloway, Republican Robert Barham, Democrat Rodney Alexander. H06 Republican Congressman Richard H. Baker H07 Democrat Congressman Chris John
MaineG Democrat **NO INCUMBENT** Congressman John E. Baldacci S2 **WATCH** Advantage Republican Senator Susan M. Collins vs Democrat Chellie Pingree H01 Democrat Congressman Thomas H. Allen H02 **NO INCUMBENT** Slight advantage Democrat Michael H. Michaud vs Republican Kevin Raye
MarylandG **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend vs Republican Congressman Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr. H01 Republican Congressman Wayne T. Gilchrest H02 **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Democrat C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger vs former Republican Congressman Helen Bentley H03 Democrat Congressman Benjamin L. Cardin H04 Democrat Congressman Albert R. Wynn H05 Democrat Congressman Steny H. Hoyer H06 Republican Congressman Roscoe G. Bartlett H07 Democrat Congressman Elijah E. Cummings H08 **WATCH** Tossup: Republican Congressman Constance "Connie" Morella vs Democrat Christopher Van Hollen, Jr.
MassachusettsG **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Democrat Shannon O'Brien vs Republican Mitt Romney S2 Democrat Senator John F. Kerry H01 Democrat Congressman John W. Olver H02 Democrat Congressman Richard E. Neal H03 Democrat Congressman James P. McGovern H04 Democrat Congressman Barney Frank H05 Democrat Congressman Martin T. Meehan H06 Democrat Congressman John F. Tierney H07 Democrat Congressman Edward J. Markey H08 Democrat Congressman Michael E. Capuano H09 Democrat Congressman Stephen F. Lynch H10 Democrat Congressman William D. Delahunt
MichiganG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Jennifer M. Granholm vs Republican Dick Posthumus S2 Democrat Senator Carl Levin H01 Democrat Congressman Bart Stupak H02 Republican Congressman Peter Hoekstra H03 Republican Congressman Vernon Ehlers H04 Republican Congressman Dave Camp H05 Democrat Congressman Dale E. Kildee H06 Republican Congressman Fred Upton H07 Republican Congressman Nick Smith H08 Republican Congressman Mike Rogers H09 Republican Congressman Joe Knollenberg H10 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Candice S. Miller vs Democrat Carl J. Marlinga H11 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Thaddeus G. McCotter H12 Democrat Congressman Sander Levin H13 Democrat Congressman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick H14 Democrat Congressman John Conyers, Jr. H15 Democrat Congressman John D. Dingell
MinnesotaG **NO INCUMBENT** Toss-up between Republican Tim Pawlenty, Democrat Roger Moe, and Independence Tim Penny S2 **WATCH** Advantage former Democrat Vice President / Senator Walter "Fritz" Mondale vs Republican Norm Coleman. H01 Republican Congressman Gil Gutknecht H02 Advantage Democrat Congressman William P. "Bill" Luther vs Republican John Kline H03 Republican Congressman Jim Ramstad H04 Democrat Congressman Betty McCollum H05 Democrat Congressman Martin Olav Sabo H06 Republican Congressman Mark R. Kennedy H07 Democrat Congressman Collin C. Peterson H08 Democrat Congressman James L. Oberstar
MississippiS2 Republican Senator Thad Cochran H01 Republican Congressman Roger F. Wicker H02 Democrat Congressman Bennie G. Thompson H03 **MULTIPLE** Advantage Republican Congressman Charles W. "Chip" Pickering, Jr. vs Democrat Congressman Ronnie Shows H04 Democrat Congressman Gene Taylor
MissouriS1 **WATCH** Tossup: Democrat Senator Jean Carnahan vs Republican Jim Talent (Senator Carnahan was appointed to fill her deceased husband's Senate Seat) H01 Democrat Congressman William Lacy Clay, Jr. H02 Republican Congressman Todd Akin H03 Democrat Congressman Richard Gephardt H04 Democrat Congressman Ike Skelton H05 Democrat Congressman Karen McCarthy H06 Republican Congressman Samuel B. Graves, Jr. H07 Republican Congressman Roy Blunt H08 Republican Congressman Jo Ann Emerson H09 Republican Congressman Kenny C. Hulshof
MontanaS2 Democrat Senator Max Baucus H Republican Congressman Dennis "Denny" Rehberg
NebraskaG Republican Governor Mike Johanns S2 Republican Senator Chuck Hagel H01 Republican Congressman Doug Bereuter H02 Republican Congressman Lee Terry H03 Republican Congressman Tom Osborne
NevadaG Republican Governor Kenny Guinn H01 Democrat Congressman Shelley Berkley H02 Republican Congressman Jim Gibbons H03 **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Advantage Republican Jon C. Porter vs Democrat Dario Herrera
New HampshireG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Craig Benson vs Democrat Mark Fernald S2 **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Republican Congressman John E. Sununu vs Democrat Governor Jeanne Shaheen H01 **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Democrat Martha Fuller Clark vs Republican Jeb Bradley H02 Republican Congressman Charles Bass
New JerseyS2 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat former Senator Frank Lautenberg vs Republican Douglas R. Forrester H01 Democrat Congressman Robert E. Andrews H02 Republican Congressman Frank A. LoBiondo H03 Republican Congressman Jim Saxton H04 Republican Congressman Christopher H. Smith H05 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Scott Garrett vs Democrat Anne Sumers H06 Democrat Congressman Frank Pallone, Jr. H07 Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson H08 Democrat Congressman Bill Pascrell, Jr. H09 Democrat Congressman Steven R. Rothman H10 Democrat Congressman Donald M. Payne H11 Republican Congressman Rodney P. Frelinghuysen H12 Democrat Congressman Rush Holt H13 Democrat Congressman Robert Menendez
New MexicoG **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Bill Richardson S2 Republican Senator Pete V. Domenici H01 Republican Congressman Heather A. Wilson H02 **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Democrat John Arthur Smith vs Republican Steve Pearce H03 Democrat Congressman Tom Udall
New YorkG Republican Governor George E. Pataki H01 Republican Congressman Felix J. Grucci, Jr. H02 Democrat Congressman Steve J. Israel H03 Republican Congressman Peter King H04 Democrat Congressman Carolyn McCarthy H05 Democrat Congressman Gary L. Ackerman H06 Democrat Congressman Gregory Meeks H07 Democrat Congressman Joseph Crowley H08 Democrat Congressman Jerrold L. Nadler H09 Democrat Congressman Anthony Weiner H10 Democrat Congressman Edolphus "Ed" Towns H11 Democrat Congressman Major R. Owens H12 Democrat Congressman Nydia M. Velazquez H13 Republican Congressman Vito J. Fossella H14 Democrat Congressman Carolyn B. Maloney H15 Democrat Congressman Charles B. Rangel H16 Democrat Congressman Jose E. Serrano H17 Democrat Congressman Eliot L. Engel H18 Democrat Congressman Nita M. Lowey H19 Republican Congressman Sue W. Kelly H20 Republican Congressman John E. Sweeney H21 Democrat Congressman Michael R. McNulty H22 Democrat Congressman Maurice D. Hinchey H23 Republican Congressman John M. McHugh H24 Republican Congressman Sherwood L. "Sherry" Boehlert H25 Republican Congressman James T. Walsh H26 Republican Congressman Thomas M. Reynolds H27 Republican Congressman Jack Quinn H28 Democrat Congressman Louise McIntosh Slaughter H29 Republican Congressman Amory R. "Amo" Houghton, Jr.
North CarolinaS2 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Elizabeth H. Dole vs Democrat Erskine Bowles H01 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Frank W. Ballance, Jr. H02 Democrat Congressman Bob Etheridge H03 Republican Congressman Walter B. Jones H04 Democrat Congressman David Price H05 Republican Congressman Richard M. Burr H06 Republican Congressman Howard Coble H07 Democrat Congressman Mike McIntyre H08 Republican Congressman Robert C. "Robin" Hayes H09 Republican Congressman Sue Myrick H10 Republican Congressman T. Cass Ballenger H11 Republican Congressman Charles H. Taylor H12 Democrat Congressman Mel Watt H13 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Brad Miller vs Republican Carolyn W. Grant
North DakotaH Democrat Congressman Earl Pomeroy
OhioG Republican Governor Bob Taft H01 Republican Congressman Steve Chabot H02 Republican Congressman Rob Portman H03 **NO INCUMBENT** Slight Advantage Republican Michael R. Turner vs Democrat Richard Alan Carne H04 Republican Congressman Michael G. Oxley H05 Republican Congressman Paul E. Gillmor H06 Democrat Congressman Ted Strickland H07 Republican Congressman Dave Hobson H08 Republican Congressman John A. Boehner H09 Democrat Congressman Marcy Kaptur H10 Democrat Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich H11 Democrat Congressman Stephanie Tubbs Jones H12 Republican Congressman Pat Tiberi H13 Democrat Congressman Sherrod Brown H14 Republican Congressman Steven C. LaTourette H15 Republican Congressman Deborah Pryce H16 Republican Congressman Ralph Regula H17 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Timothy J. Ryan vs Republican Ann Wormer Benjamin vs Expelled Democrat Congressman James A. Traficant, Jr. H18 Republican Congressman Bob Ney
OklahomaG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage former Republican Congressman Steve Largent vs Democrat Brad Henry S2 Republican Senator James M. Inhofe H01 Republican Congressman John Sullivan H02 Democrat Congressman Brad Carson H03 Republican Congressman Frank Lucas H04 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Tom Cole vs Democrat Darryl Roberts H05 Republican Congressman Ernest Istook
OregonG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Ted Kulongoski vs Republican Kevin Mannix S2 Republican Senator Gordon H. Smith H01 Democrat Congressman David Wu H02 Republican Congressman Greg Walden H03 Democrat Congressman Earl Blumenauer H04 Democrat Congressman Peter A. Defazio H05 Democrat Congressman Darlene Hooley
PennsylvaniaG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Ed Rendell vs Republican Mike Fisher H01 Democrat Congressman Robert A. Brady H02 Democrat Congressman Chaka Fattah H03 Republican Congressman Phil English H04 Republican Congressman Melissa Hart H05 Republican Congressman John E. Peterson H06 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Jim Gerlach vs Democrat Daniel Wofford H07 Republican Congressman Curt Weldon H08 Republican Congressman Jim Greenwood H09 Republican Congressman Bill Shuster H10 Republican Congressman Don Sherwood H11 Democrat Congressman Paul E. Kanjorski H12 Democrat Congressman John P. Murtha H13 Democrat Congressman Joseph M. Hoeffel H14 Democrat Congressman Mike Doyle H15 Republican Congressman Pat Toomey H16 Republican Congressman Joseph R. Pitts H17 **MULTIPLE** Tossup: Democrat Congressman Tim Holden vs Republican Congressman George W. Gekas H18 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Tim Murphy vs Democrat Jack Machek H19 Republican Congressman Todd Platts
Rhode IslandG **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: slight advantage Democrat Myrth York vs Republican Don Carcieri S2 Democrat Senator John F. "Jack" Reed H01 Democrat Congressman Patrick J. Kennedy H02 Democrat Congressman James R. Langevin
South CarolinaG **WATCH** Tossup: Democrat Governor Jim Hodges vs Republican Mark Sanford S2 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Congressman Lindsey Graham vs Democrat Alex Sanders H01 Republican Congressman Henry E. Brown H02 Republican Congressman A. G. "Joe" Wilson H03 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican J. Gresham Barrett H04 Republican Congressman Jim DeMint H05 Democrat Congressman John Spratt H06 Democrat Congressman James E. "Jim" Clyburn
South DakotaG **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Mike Rounds S2 Republican **WATCH** Tossup: Democart Senator Tim Johnson vs Republican Congressman John Thune H **NO INCUMBENT** Tossup: Republican Governor William J. Janklow vs Democrat Stephanie Herseth
TennesseeG **NO INCUMBENT** Very slight advantage Democrat Phil Bredesen vs Republican Congressman Van Hilleary S2 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Lamar Alexander vs Democrat Congressman Bob Clement H01 Republican Congressman William L. Jenkins H02 Republican Congressman John J. Duncan, Jr. H03 Republican Congressman Zach Wamp H04 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Lincoln Davis H05 **NO INCUMBENT** Democart Jim Cooper H06 Democrat Congressman Bart Gordon H07 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Marsha Blackburn H08 Democrat Congressman John S. Tanner H09 Democrat Congressman Harold E. Ford, Jr.
TexasG Republican Governor Rick Perry S2 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican John Cornyn vs Democrat Ron Kirk H01 Democrat Congressman Max Sandlin H02 Democrat Congressman Jim Turner H03 Republican Congressman Sam Johnson H04 Democrat Congressman Ralph M. Hall H05 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Jeb Henslarling vs Democrat Ron Chapman H06 Republican Congressman Joe Barton H07 Republican Congressman John Culberson H08 Republican Congressman Kevin Brady H09 Democrat Congressman Nicholas "Nick" Lampson H10 Democrat Congressman Lloyd Doggett H11 Democrat Congressman Chet Edwards H12 Republican Congressman Kay Granger H13 Republican Congressman Mac Thornberry H14 Republican Congressman Ron Paul H15 Democrat Congressman Ruben Hinojosa H16 Democrat Congressman Silvestre Reyes H17 Democrat Congressman Charlie Stenholm H18 Democrat Congressman Sheila Jackson Lee H19 Republican Congressman Larry Combest H20 Democrat Congressman Charles A. Gonzalez H21 Republican Congressman Lamar Smith H22 Republican Congressman Tom DeLay H23 Republican Congressman Henry Bonilla H24 Democrat Congressman Martin Frost H25 **NO INCUMBENT** Democrat Chris Bell H26 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican Michael C. Burgess H27 Democrat Congressman Solomon P. Ortiz H28 Democrat Congressman Ciro D. Rodriguez H29 Democrat Congressman Gene Green H30 Democrat Congressman Eddie Bernice Johnson H31 **NO INCUMBENT** Republican John R. Carter H32 Republican Congressman Pete Sessions
UtahH01 **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Republican Rob Bishop vs Democrat Dave Thomas H02 **WATCH** Advantage Democrat Congressman Jim Matheson vs Republican John Swallow H03 Republican Congressman Chris Cannon
VermontG **NO INCUMBENT** Advantage Democrat Douglas A. "Doug" Racine vs Republican James H. "Jim" Douglas H Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders
VirginiaS2 Republican Senator John W. Warner H01 Republican Congressman Jo Ann S. Davis H02 Republican Congressman Edward L. "Ed" Schrock H03 Democrat Congressman Robert C. "Bobby" Scott H04 Republican Congressman Randy Forbes H05 Republican Congressman Virgil H. Goode, Jr. H06 Republican Congressman Robert W. "Bob" Goodlatte H07 Republican Congressman Eric I. Cantor H08 Democrat Congressman James P. Moran, Jr. H09 Democrat Congressman Frederick C. "Rick" Boucher H10 Republican Congressman Frank R. Wolf H11 Republican Congressman Thomas M. Davis, III
WashingtonH01 Democrat Congressman Jay Inslee H02 Democrat Congressman Rick Larsen H03 Democrat Congressman Brian Baird H04 Republican Congressman Doc Hastings H05 Republican Congressman George R. Nethercutt H06 Democrat Congressman Norm Dicks H07 Democrat Congressman Jim McDermott H08 Republican Congressman Jennifer Dunn H09 Democrat Congressman Adam Smith
West VirginiaS2 Democrat Senator John D. "Jay" Rockefeller, IV H01 Democrat Congressman Alan B. Mollohan H02 **WATCH** Tossup: Republican Congressman Shelley Moore Capito vs Democrat Jim Humphreys H03 Democrat Congressman Nick Joe Rahall, II
WisconsinG **WATCH** Advantage Democrat Jim Doyle vs Republican Governor Scott McCallum H01 Republican Congressman Paul D. Ryan H02 Democrat Congressman Tammy Baldwin H03 Democrat Congressman Ron Kind H04 Democrat Congressman Jerry Kleczka H05 Republican Congressman F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. H06 Republican Congressman Tom Petri H07 Democrat Congressman David R. Obey H08 Republican Congressman Mark Green
WyomingG **NO INCUMBENT** slight advantage Republican Eli Bebout vs Democrat Dave Freudenthal S2 Republican Senator Michael B. Enzi H Republican Congressman Barbara Cubin
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